Ever since bitcoin began to lose worth quickly and persistently in This autumn final 12 months, the primary query throughout the cryptocurrency group is how low it may well go. The subsequent one was: when and the place it would backside out.
Analysts started speculating after every leg down. At first, it was $60,000 when BTC dipped to that degree in February. Months later, although, it crashed to $59,000, $58,000, and even barely beneath that on July 1. As such, the underside figures have barely modified. Now, common analyst Rekt Fencer introduced some historic figures to stipulate the precise date.
October 2026: Right here We Go
In an August 13 tweet, the market commentator outlined that there are 53 days left (now 51 since two days have already handed) till this market slumber and sluggishness finish. They based mostly this prediction on earlier BTC cycles, as bull markets lasted roughly 1,064 days, whereas the next bear phases required roughly 364 days to search out their final backside. The sample sounds easy, but it surely has been surprisingly constant.
Bitcoin’s bull cycle from the 2015 backside to its 2017 peak lasted precisely 1,064 days. The painful bear market wanted one other 364 days earlier than the cryptocurrency lastly bottomed in December 2018.
Historical past nearly completely repeated itself from that 2018 backside to the November 2021 peak. Guess what: one other 364-day decline adopted that culminated within the 2022 bear-market low.
It will get higher. BTC’s newest bull cycle ran from late 2022 till October 2025. Sure, one other roughly 1,064 days. If the second half of this sample repeats as precisely as the primary, Rekt Fencer believes the following backside will arrive on October 5, 2026.
BITCOIN HAS 53 DAYS LEFT.$BTC macro cycles are nearly too excellent:
2015 ➜ 2017 bull: 1064 days
2017 ➜ 2018 bear: 364 days2018 ➜ 2021 bull: 1064 days
2021 ➜ 2022 bear: 364 days2022 ➜ 2025 bull: 1064 days
If the sample repeats yet one more time:
2025 ➜ 2026 bear: 364… https://t.co/R5BYDSY8nb pic.twitter.com/I1E4g3N6fy
— Rekt Fencer (@rektfencer) August 13, 2026
October in Focus
The screenshot reshared by Rekt Fencer has been a well-liked one within the crypto group. The explanation for that is its shocking accuracy. The earlier two main BTC bear markets required roughly 363 and 376 days, respectively, to maneuver from their cycle peaks to eventual capitulation lows.
Making use of that vary to Bitcoin’s October 2025 ATH produces a possible bottoming window between roughly October 4 and 17 this 12 months. Ali Martinez lately outlined nearly the identical risk, however his dates ranged between October 6 and 16.
There’s an apparent downside with relying too closely on specific calendar patterns. BTC’s earlier cycles developed underneath solely totally different macroeconomic environments. At present’s market contains spot ETFs, huge institutional holders, company treasuries, a unique regulatory panorama, and much larger integration with TradFi.
Rates of interest, liquidity, ETF flows, geopolitical developments, and Fed coverage may simply break even essentially the most correct sample. As such, October 5 (or 6-16) shouldn’t be handled as some predetermined date on which BTC is assured to print its lowest candle earlier than it explodes to new peaks inside days, weeks, and even months.
However then once more, it’s at all times good to have a North Star, and October 2026 has shortly grow to be the month each crypto investor has circled on the calendar.
The publish Bitcoin’s Backside Has a Date: And It’s Nearer Than You Suppose appeared first on CryptoPotato.