February 2025 is proving to be a unfavorable month for the value of SOL, the native cryptocurrency of Solana.
To inform the reality, it’s a bit your complete altcoin sector that’s struggling, however so far as SOL is worried, there’s a particular cause that makes it attainable to consider that the decline might proceed additional.
The success of Solana
The all-time excessive worth reached by the cryptocurrency Solana was $294, hit on January 19.
It isn’t a coincidence that this was additionally the day following the one when Donald Trump launched his official memecoin, on condition that it was launched exactly on the Solana blockchain.
Particularly, ranging from $125 in September 2024, the value of SOL has grown considerably and really shortly, a lot in order that it recorded a +66% in simply 18 days in November.
On one hand, this progress was definitely triggered by the so-called Trump commerce, specifically the electoral victory of Donald Trump, which led to the resignation of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, and is resulting in the closure of virtually all the primary circumstances opened by the company in opposition to crypto lately.
Alternatively, nevertheless, particularly relating to Solana, the increase can be because of the sensational success of Pump.enjoyable and memecoins.
The decline within the worth of Solana (SOL)
Nevertheless, the launch of Trump’s memecoin didn’t go notably properly.
The worth of its token $TRUMP first rose to over $70, however simply three days later it had fallen to round $30.
Every week later it additionally fell beneath $30, and two weeks after the launch it additionally fell beneath $20. Now its worth hovers round $15, however for a number of weeks now it appears to have entered a descending lateralization part that may not have concluded but.
Furthermore, just a few days in the past, the Argentine President Javier Milei marketed a scamcoin, additionally on Solana, and this brought on the recognition of shitcoin to implode.
As of the primary of February, the value of SOL was over $220, however ranging from that day, it started a decline that may not have concluded but.
On February third, it dropped to nearly $180, solely to recuperate however only for a short while. In actual fact, on February seventeenth, it fell beneath that threshold, and in latest days it has additionally dropped beneath $160.
At present, it’s at -47% from the all-time highs of a month in the past, with a -15% recorded in simply the final seven days.
The unfavorable forecasts on the value of Solana (SOL)
The issue is that not solely your complete sector of memecoins, and of shitcoins generally, goes via a extremely powerful time, however the identical factor applies to altcoins generally.
Taking the final seven days as a reference, whereas BTC is basically even, ETH is at -3%, XRP at -9%, BNB at -5%, and Dogecoin at -13%. The truth that SOL in latest days is shedding greater than all these altcoins clearly reveals that its decline is just not solely linked to the overall drop in altcoins.
In these seven days, the dominance of Bitcoin has risen from 60.7% to 61.6%, and for a metric like this, it’s a vital improve in such a short while.
In actual fact, the altseason index of CMC has dropped from 38 to 27 factors, getting very near these 25 factors beneath which the Bitcoin season begins, that’s, a interval wherein BTC performs considerably higher than altcoins, on common.
Moreover, there may be an ongoing slowdown in on-chain exercise on Solana, and an imminent token unlock.
In mild of all this, there are those that consider that the value of SOL might drop even beneath $150 within the quick time period, however it isn’t sure that within the medium time period it might then begin to rise once more.
The bear hypotheses
It was additionally found that the whales have elevated their bearish bets on SOL with choices on Deribit.
In actual fact, nearly all of trades on SOL had been about put choices, exactly these used to guard in opposition to bear markets.
Notice that the buying and selling quantity on Solana was concentrated 80% on put contracts, whereas for instance this proportion was solely 40% for BTC and 37.5% for ETH.
Furthermore, on the primary of March, there will likely be an necessary token unlocking occasion (11.2 million SOL tokens), with a worth exceeding 2 billion {dollars}.
There thus appears to be little or no room for an upswing within the quick time period, whereas issues might then enhance within the medium time period.