Seeing Bitcoin’s worth rally as Donald Trump takes the lead on the world’s largest prediction market, Polymarket, made me do a little analysis on what Polymarket is and who makes use of it.
And now I’ve to say — I consider that Polymarket leans pro-Trump. We have to account for that bias, and right here’s why.
Let’s take a look at some knowledge. Polymarket exhibits Trump surging to an enormous 28% lead over Harris. One other prediction market, Kalshi, additionally exhibits Trump main by 18%. In the meantime, most different polls have a decent race. This large skew is mindless – until Polymarket’s consumer base is disproportionately pro-Trump.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Professional-#Bitcoin Donald Trump takes the largest lead within the election thus far, up by 28.8% within the odds: Polymarket pic.twitter.com/0m1FOG2pNL
— Bitcoin Journal (@BitcoinMagazine) October 22, 2024
Which it’s. Polymarket solely permits crypto betting and blocks US customers. This filters its viewers towards offshore Bitcoin and crypto lovers or US crypto customers who use VPNs, and research present that crypto customers are likely to lean conservative.
And with Trump pledging to Implement crypto-friendly insurance policies, he’s a no brainer for Bitcoin and crypto customers.
Some add that Trump’s bets are a part of “a coordinated effort to vary the notion of this race.”
This may occasionally even be the case, nevertheless it ought to be clear that Polymarket polls are biased.
Does this make Polymarket corrupt? I do not assume so. It provides insightful predictive knowledge and it is a free market platform the place anybody can bid in the event that they assume in any other case. Which makes it among the finest instruments to know the market sentiment.
However something exhibiting Trump or Harris with a large lead at this level within the election ought to warrant scepticism. Merchants can recognise and exploit this bias. I would look to purchase Harris, anticipating the race tightening as election day nears. Polymarket odds ought to normalise nearer to even odds.
In abstract, Polymarket caters to Trump-friendly Bitcoin and crypto crowds, which distorts its election odds considerably in comparison with different polls. Figuring out this, some individuals can capitalise accordingly.
This text is a Take. Opinions expressed are completely the writer’s and don’t essentially mirror these of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Journal.