Briefly
- American Cardinal Robert Prevost was elected pope Thursday, turning into the primary U.S.-born pontiff in historical past.
- Prevost’s shock victory upended world betting markets, the place he had lower than a 2% probability throughout main platforms.
- Over $40 million was wagered on the papal end result, with some long-shot bettors netting five-figure earnings.
In a surprising flip that upended world betting markets, American Cardinal Robert Prevost was elected pope Thursday, turning into the primary U.S.-born pontiff and defying odds that closely favored European contenders.
After Pope Francis died on April 21, 2025, hypothesis shortly turned to who would succeed him as chief of the Catholic Church. Many anticipated an Italian cardinal or one from a predominantly Catholic nation.
Forward of the conclave, U.Okay.-based OddsChecker ranked Cardinal Pietro Parolin as the favourite with +225 odds (a 30.8% implied chance), adopted by Cardinals Luis Antonio Tagle at +275 (26.7%) and Pierbattista Pizzaballa at +500 (16.7%).
Prevost was not listed among the many prime 5 contenders.
After black smoke signaled on Wednesday that no pope had been chosen, bettors on Polymarket entered the second day of the conclave with Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin because the front-runner. He drew $2.6 million in quantity, adopted by Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle with $2.3 million.
In the meantime, on Kalshi, one other U.S.-based prediction market, Parolin surged to 68% as white smoke rose from the Sistine Chapel on Thursday, signaling that the conclave had chosen a brand new pope. By comparability, Prevost had only one.2%, trailing behind Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Turkson at 4.2%.
On the similar time, Myriad Markets—run by DASTAN, Decrypt’s dad or mum firm—gave Cardinal Pietro Parolin a 27% probability and Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle 23%, with roughly half of all bets positioned on “Different.”
With thousands and thousands wagered on the result, most gamblers walked away dissatisfied, whereas a couple of, nonetheless, struck gold. Kalshi reported that one bettor earned $52,641 after inserting a profitable wager on Prevost.
On Polymarket, one other bettor turned a $1,000 wager on Prevost into $64,742 by backing the lengthy shot. In complete, gamblers wagered $40 million on who can be the subsequent pope.
Regardless of lengthy odds and low betting confidence, Prevost’s shock election reminds us that darkish horse candidates can rise to the highest in sports activities, politics, and even essentially the most tradition-bound establishments.
Edited by Sebastian Sinclair
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