Bitcoin butterfly option trade targets $95,000 by end‑October

Traders have placed a sizable long‑call butterfly option strategy on Bitcoin, indicating expectations that the cryptocurrency could reach around $95,000 by the October 30 expiration.

Structure of the trade

The butterfly consists of buying 1,000 call contracts at a $90,000 strike, selling 2,000 call contracts at a $95,000 strike, and buying another 1,000 calls at a $100,000 strike. This block was repeated five times, resulting in a net initial outlay of approximately $3.17 million.

Potential payoff

The position profits most when Bitcoin settles close to the middle $95,000 strike at expiry. Between $90,000 and $100,000 the trade has a positive gross payoff; outside that range the payoff drops to zero, leaving the trader with the $3.17 million premium as a loss.

Market context

Bitcoin is trading near $86,000, with its daily chart showing limited resistance between $85,000 and $98,000. The price action suggests the asset could move toward the upper end of this range in the coming weeks.

In addition to the butterfly, overall call demand has risen, pushing short‑term risk reversals higher. Options on other major tokens are also pricing notable volatility, with one‑standard‑deviation moves of 8.9% for XRP, 8.0% for SOL, 6.9% for Ether, and 5.0% for Bitcoin through late September.