Bernstein Projects Bitcoin to Reach $125K by Late 2026 and $300K by 2029

Bernstein’s latest research report predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) will recover from its recent decline, retake its 2025 high of $125,000 by late 2026 and continue upward through the next market cycle.

Mid‑term price outlook

In the firm’s base case, Bitcoin is expected to reach $150,000 by mid‑2027 and peak near $300,000 in 2029. A bull case pushes the 2027 level to $200,000 and the 2029 peak to $500,000. Both scenarios maintain a longer‑term target of roughly $1 million by 2033.

Methodology behind the forecast

Bernstein bases its projections on Bitcoin’s four‑year halving cycles, dividing each cycle into breakout, hype, drawdown and accumulation phases. The analysts compare projected prices to the marginal cost of production – the cost for the least efficient miners to create new coins – and assume the price‑to‑marginal‑cost multiple will follow patterns observed in previous cycles.

Implications for major corporate holders

The firm notes that institutional and corporate Bitcoin buyers have provided stronger downside support in the current cycle, limiting the drawdown compared with earlier cycles that saw 75‑90% declines. Bernstein expects this support to benefit MicroStrategy (ticker: MSTR), the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder with roughly 840,447 BTC (about 4% of total supply). While the analyst team kept an “Outperform” rating on MicroStrategy, they lowered the price target for its common stock to $350 from $450, citing equity dilution and the updated Bitcoin outlook.

Potential for renewed corporate buying

Bernstein suggests that a sustained Bitcoin rally, combined with a recovery in MicroStrategy’s preferred stock (STRC) toward $100, could enable the company to resume larger Bitcoin purchases after selling around 7,000 BTC in 2026.