Bitcoin awaits Fed rate decision below $76K as analysis discounts ‘dovish surprise’ odds

Bitcoin (BTC) remained near its monthly lows as traders awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest‑rate decision. The cryptocurrency stayed below the $76,000 mark, hovering close to its lowest level since August 21.

Fed rate‑hike expectations

Market data from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicated a 93% probability that the Fed would raise its target rate by 0.25 percentage points, moving the federal funds range to 3.75‑4%.

Analysts noted that such a high probability historically aligns with an actual hike, making a surprise pause unlikely.

On‑chain support levels

Glassnode’s on‑chain analysis highlighted strong bid liquidity around $68,000, suggesting this level as the next near‑term support. Additional support zones were identified at $71,300 (short‑term holder cost basis) and a broader range of $62,000‑$65,000 where roughly 9% of supply was previously accumulated.

Broader market context

Globally, central banks are tightening policy: the European Central Bank recently raised rates by 0.25%, and the Bank of Japan is expected to do the same, lifting its benchmark to 1.25%.

Rising oil prices, with U.S. WTI crude reaching $106.70 per barrel, are adding inflationary pressure, which could influence both monetary policy and crypto market sentiment.

Outlook

With the Fed’s decision imminent, Bitcoin’s price action will likely reflect the outcome. A confirmed hike would reinforce current support levels, while an unexpected pause could test lower on‑chain floors.