CryptoQuant CEO predicts a 3–5× Bitcoin bull cycle

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju says the current Bitcoin bull market is entering a more mature phase that could generate overall gains of three to five times the starting level, rather than the 10× rallies and 80% drawdowns seen in earlier cycles.

Market structure supports a milder cycle

Ju points to several on‑chain indicators that suggest reduced volatility. The market‑value‑to‑realized‑value (MVRV) ratio has stayed above one throughout the present cycle, indicating that the average holder remains in profit even during price corrections. Realized capitalization – the aggregate cost basis of all coins – continues to rise, showing fresh capital inflows while older “whale” holders have largely stopped selling.

Institutional participation is changing dynamics

Increasing institutional demand, reflected in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and corporate treasury purchases, is expanding Bitcoin’s market size. Ju notes that larger institutional ownership tends to dampen the extreme price swings that characterized earlier, retail‑driven cycles.

Derivatives positioning adds support

CryptoQuant’s derivatives analysis shows that large futures‑market participants built sizable long positions near the recent price bottom, providing additional upside potential as the market recovers.

Projected cycle magnitude

Ju’s 3–5× estimate refers to the full cycle amplitude, not a short‑term price target. He does not specify the exact base price for the calculation, but the projection implies that Bitcoin could finish the cycle at a level roughly three to five times higher than the price at the start of the current uptrend.

Key on‑chain metrics

• MVRV ratio remained above 1 throughout the cycle.
• Realized capitalization added over $4.6 billion in a single week in August.
• Futures whales accumulated large long positions near the recent bottom.
• ETF inflows of $433 million were recorded on September 18.

While the outlook suggests a less extreme bull market and a milder bear correction, Ju cautions that sharp pullbacks remain possible.