The 10x Bitcoin Rally Isn't Coming. CryptoQuant CEO Predicts a Calmer Cycle

CryptoQuant chief executive Ki Young Ju says the current Bitcoin rally is unlikely to repeat the 10‑times gains of previous cycles. He expects a more modest upside of three to five times the current price, followed by a gentler bear market.

On‑chain signals point to a calmer market

Ju cites several on‑chain metrics to support his view. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has stayed above 1 throughout the cycle, indicating that overall holders have not been underwater. The 365‑day moving average of the PnL Index is showing an inflection point, suggesting a shift in market sentiment.

Changing ownership dynamics

According to Ju, the rise in institutional ownership and the reduced influence of retail “hot money” differentiate this cycle from earlier ones that saw 80 % price crashes. He notes a rise in realized market cap and a pause in selling by long‑term (“OG”) whales, while futures whales have built sizable long positions near the bottom of the recent decline.

Price context and potential targets

Bitcoin reached $87,395 on 21 September, its highest level since late January, after closing above the 50‑week moving average for the first time since November 2025. From the June low near $58,000, a 3× move would target roughly $174,000, a 4× move about $232,000, and a 5× move around $290,000.

Implications for investors

Ju argues that abandoning the expectation of a 10× parabolic rally reduces the risk of an 80 % crash, making Bitcoin more attractive to patient, long‑term capital rather than speculative short‑term flows.