Bitcoin’s 22% Monthly Gain Still Lacks Spot Confirmation, Nansen Says

Bitcoin has recovered roughly 22% over the last month, yet Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Søndergaard says the rally is not yet backed by the spot‑market activity needed to confirm a sustained bull phase.

Spot‑flow and ETF signals remain weak

While daily and weekly trends are positive, Bitcoin is trading below its seven‑day average and short‑term momentum is muted. Nansen tracked a net inflow of about 3,700 BTC to exchanges from labelled entities during the past week, a flow that can precede selling. In addition, US‑listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $236 million in withdrawals in the latest period.

Whale positioning is divided

Large‑holder data show no clear consensus. Overall whale addresses are slightly net long, but major traders on the Hyperliquid platform hold heavy short exposure. Funding rates stay positive but moderate, and open interest in derivatives has contracted, indicating reduced overall exposure even as taker‑flow data point to continued selling.

Key price levels to watch

• Resistance: $80,000 – requires a hold above $77,400‑$77,650 first.
• Support: $76,400 – a break could pressure bullish leveraged positions.
• Deeper support zones: $74,500 and $72,000.

Macro backdrop

US 10‑year Treasury yields are near 4.80%, and stablecoin supply sits around $310 billion with little growth. These factors, along with expectations of further Fed rate hikes, add pressure on non‑yield‑bearing assets such as Bitcoin.

Outlook

Søndergaard says a durable recovery would need Bitcoin to reclaim the $77,400‑$77,650 range, see stronger spot‑volume, and experience improving ETF inflows while funding remains moderate and open interest gradually expands. Without these confirmations, the rally could remain dependent on leveraged buying and be vulnerable to correction.