Kalshi crypto perpetual volumes dominated by repetitive trade sizes

Analysis of Kalshi’s public trade data shows that a small set of fixed‑dollar trade sizes accounted for the majority of activity in both the ether and bitcoin perpetual‑futures markets.

Ether perpetuals: a single trade size drives most volume

During a four‑day sample from September 17‑20, trades valued within $2 of $5,499 represented $7.7 million, or 57 % of the $13.5 million ether‑perpetual volume examined. The same $5,499‑ish target appeared in 43 of 46 one‑hour samples taken between June 19 and September 20, often representing about 45 % of the hourly value.

Bitcoin perpetuals: two recurring sizes dominate

In the same period, two recurring trade sizes—approximately $2,500 and $5,000—made up 54 % of the $8.5 million bitcoin‑perpetual volume. The larger size was typically close to twice the smaller one, adjusting as bitcoin’s price moved.

Pattern suggests algorithmic execution

The fixed‑dollar amounts persisted even as the underlying price of ether or bitcoin changed, meaning the number of contracts in each trade varied to keep the dollar value constant. This behavior aligns with known algorithmic strategies that target a set notional exposure and dynamically scale contract quantities.

Volume‑to‑open‑interest ratios are unusually high

Kalshi’s ether perpetual market showed a volume‑to‑open‑interest ratio of 61, meaning roughly 61 contracts changed hands for every contract left open. The bitcoin contract’s ratio was 26. Both ratios are well above the median of about eight across Kalshi’s 20 perpetual markets.

Regulatory context and unanswered questions

Kalshi is a CFTC‑regulated U.S. derivatives exchange. The exchange has not identified the traders behind the repetitive sizes, nor confirmed whether market‑making or rebate programs influenced the pattern. A rebate program that reduced fees to 0.003 % began on September 16, but it started after the initial appearance of the $5,499 trades and therefore does not explain their emergence.

Key observations

• One $5,499‑ish trade size accounted for 57 % of sampled ether‑perpetual volume.
• Two trade sizes around $2,500 and $5,000 accounted for 54 % of sampled bitcoin‑perpetual volume.
• The pattern persisted across most hourly samples from June to September, indicating automated, fixed‑dollar trading.
• Volume‑to‑open‑interest ratios were 61 for ether and 26 for bitcoin, far above market medians.
• Kalshi has not disclosed the identities of the participants or whether any market‑making incentives were involved.