Bitcoin near $79,500 as US inflation data and Treasury auction loom

Bitcoin was trading near $79,500 on Monday, Sept. 7, as markets prepared for three key U.S. events that could influence the cryptocurrency’s short‑term direction.

Employment data and rate‑hike expectations

The August non‑farm payrolls report showed an increase of 162,000 jobs, keeping the unemployment rate at 4.1%. The stronger‑than‑expected payrolls pushed market participants to assign roughly a 58% probability to a September rate hike, up from earlier estimates.

Upcoming inflation reports

Two inflation indicators are scheduled before the Fed meeting:

• Producer Price Index (PPI) – to be released on Sept. 10. Forecasts call for a 0.4% month‑over‑month rise in headline PPI and a 0.3% rise in core PPI, with annual producer inflation expected to climb to 5.4%.
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) – to be released on Sept. 11. Analysts expect headline inflation to hold near 3.4% year‑over‑year, while core inflation may ease to 2.4%.

Both reports could affect expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, though the Fed has indicated it will consider a range of data.

Treasury auction as a yield test

The U.S. Treasury will auction reopened ten‑year notes on Sept. 9, with settlement on Sept. 15. Demand levels will influence the auction yield and, consequently, longer‑term Treasury rates, which have been a notable factor for Bitcoin’s price movements.

Federal Reserve policy meeting

The Federal Open Market Committee meets on Sept. 15‑16, releasing its policy statement at 2 p.m. ET on the second day, followed by a press conference. Updated economic projections could move markets even if the Fed leaves rates unchanged.

Bitcoin’s price outlook

Bitcoin’s recent trading range sits between $79,000 and $82,500. A break below the Sept. 5 low could weaken the recovery, while a sustained close above the $82,500 resistance level would suggest renewed demand.