Bitcoin Crosses Key Momentum Threshold Seen Before 2019 and 2023 Bull Markets

Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode noted on September 22 that Bitcoin’s market‑value‑to‑realized‑value (MVRV) ratio has risen above its one‑year moving average. The metric, which compares Bitcoin’s current market cap to the estimated cost basis of coins based on their last movement, has historically crossed this threshold at the onset of major bull markets.

Historical Context of the MVRV Crossover

The same MVRV crossover occurred in early 2019 and again in 2023, each time following a sharp price decline. In 2019 the price rallied sharply before retracing part of the gains, while the 2023 rally extended into 2024. Glassnode cautions that the past patterns do not guarantee a specific trajectory for 2026, but they provide a reference point for market participants.

Current Price Action and Demand Indicators

Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the $87,000 level this week, its highest price since January. The price rise aligns with the MVRV signal, though the indicator reflects on‑chain valuation rather than immediate buying pressure. Separate demand signals include a near‑$1 billion net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on September 21, the largest single‑day total for 2026.

Approximately 1.07 million BTC were acquired between $83,000 and $86,000, placing many holders near breakeven as the price revisits that range. The largest concentration of these coins sits around $85,000, primarily held by long‑term investors, creating a potential supply test if prices stabilize near that level. Options positions suggest $95,000‑$97,000 as the next major price test.

Altcoin Market Conditions

Glassnode’s September 22 data show that less than 25 % of the median tracked altcoin supply is in profit, indicating that most altcoins remain below their estimated acquisition cost. Despite this, 72.5 % of tracked altcoins outperformed Bitcoin over the prior week, though many holders who bought at higher prices may still be in loss.

Outlook

The MVRV crossover adds a bullish data point to the current market narrative, but the upcoming price action will depend on whether demand from ETFs, retail, and institutional participants can absorb the supply near breakeven levels.