Bitcoin Is Trading Like Gold, Not the Nasdaq — And Right Now That's the Problem

Bitcoin and gold moved up together through August as investors chased a debasement trade, but both assets reversed after a hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.

Debasement trade fuels August rally

The rally began with the U.S. Treasury announcing a doubled buyback cap for longer‑dated debt, to at least $4 billion. Investors shifted into alternative assets, lifting both gold and Bitcoin. The MSCI Global Gold Miners Index posted a 43 % gain in August, its strongest month on record. Gold and Bitcoin ETFs together attracted about $7 billion over five trading days, a record flow for that period.

Peak prices and subsequent pullback

Gold reached an intra‑day high of $4,697 per ounce, while Bitcoin touched $81,354 on Binance – its highest level in roughly three months. After the Jackson Hole speech, gold fell to around $4,432 (down 5.6 % from the peak) and Bitcoin traded near $77,411, down almost 5 %.

Fed’s hawkish signal and rate‑risk impact

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized that inflation remains above the 2 % target, shifting focus to price stability. Rate‑market pricing responded quickly, raising the probability of a September 16 rate hike to 62.6 % (from 57 % the day before). Higher policy rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non‑yield‑bearing assets such as gold and Bitcoin, contributing to their joint decline.

Correlation shift between Bitcoin, gold and Nasdaq

Research from Grayscale showed Bitcoin’s 90‑day correlation with gold rose above 50 % this year, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 fell from over 60 % to roughly 33 %. The analysis suggests investors are treating Bitcoin more as a monetary hedge than as a leveraged bet on technology stocks.

Outlook

The upcoming September 16 Fed meeting will test the debasement trade. If a rate hike occurs as priced, the rally’s momentum could face its first substantive headwind since the bond‑selloff that initiated it.