Bitcoin climbs above its 365‑day moving average, analysts eye the 200‑day line

Bitcoin surged past its 365‑day simple moving average (SMA) on September 22, reaching around $80,900. The price break ended a 310‑day stretch below that long‑term line.

Historical context of the 365‑day break

AltcoinPro examined the five prior occasions when Bitcoin reclaimed its 365‑day SMA after at least 90 days beneath it. In each case the cryptocurrency was higher twelve months later, delivering gains ranging from roughly 59 % to more than 1,400 %.

When the analysis was broadened to include shorter periods below the SMA, two breakouts – in July 2018 and March 2022 – failed, with Bitcoin falling about 27 % and 59 % respectively within 90 days.

Focus shifts to the 200‑day average

AltcoinPro’s founders, Ryan Horst and Joni Zhuleku, said the 200‑day SMA is a more relevant gauge. Their calculations placed the 200‑day line near $70,800, with Bitcoin trading roughly 19 % above it at the time of writing.

The 365‑day SMA, by contrast, was still converging toward the market price and therefore lagged the shorter‑term trend.

Golden cross and market sentiment

Bitcoin’s 50‑day SMA crossed above its 200‑day SMA on September 8, forming a “golden cross.” The founders noted that this signal appeared after a prolonged period below the 200‑day line (293 days), which they view as more constructive than a cross occurring near a market peak.

They cautioned that moving‑average signals describe past price behavior and do not guarantee future performance. The next test, they said, will be whether the recent modest sell‑off pushes Bitcoin back toward the 200‑day SMA.