Bitcoin Moves Closer to Gold as US Debt Revives Debasement Trade

Grayscale reports a notable shift in Bitcoin’s correlation profile, suggesting the cryptocurrency is being treated more as a scarce monetary asset than a high‑beta tech stock.

Correlation Shift Toward Gold

Using Bloomberg data through August 24, Grayscale found Bitcoin’s 90‑day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 fell from above 60 % to roughly 33 %. In the same period, its correlation with gold rose from near zero at the start of 2026 to over 50 %.

US Debt Levels Heighten Fiscal Concerns

The United States crossed the $40 trillion public‑debt threshold in August, prompting increased scrutiny of deficits and borrowing costs. Treasury projected $739 billion in privately held net marketable borrowing for Q3 and $628 billion for Q4, with an August quarterly refunding of $125 billion in securities.

Debasement Trade Resurfaces

Higher debt levels and Treasury bond‑repurchase activity have revived the “debasement trade,” where investors shift from fiat currencies and sovereign debt to assets with limited supply. Bitcoin’s fixed issuance cap of roughly 21 million BTC aligns it with gold in this narrative.

Implications for Investors

If Bitcoin continues to exhibit gold‑like behavior, its role as a portfolio diversifier could strengthen. However, correlation relationships are not static and do not guarantee safe‑haven performance.