Bitwise CIO Hougan revises Clarity Act outlook, says crypto bull market may continue without legislation

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan now believes that the failure of the Clarity Act is unlikely to trigger a prolonged market downturn. The Senate procedural vote on the bill fell short of the 60 votes needed to advance, receiving only 49 votes.

Market performance versus legislative odds

Hougan noted that Bitcoin (BTC) has risen sharply since early July, moving from a low near $57,950 to above $80,000 by early September. During the same period, Polymarket’s estimated probability of the Clarity Act becoming law this year dropped from 39% to 14%.

Regulatory environment

Despite the legislative setback, major Wall Street firms have continued to expand crypto offerings. Examples include Robinhood’s launch of its own blockchain, Morgan Stanley’s introduction of a Solana exchange‑traded fund, and the DTCC’s settlement of tokenized stock trades. Hougan attributes this confidence to a “pro‑crypto” stance from the SEC and CFTC, whose current leadership expects to address issues covered by the Clarity Act through agency rulemaking.

Potential risks

Hougan cautioned that the market could face short‑term headwinds, citing concerns about interest rates and oil prices. He also noted that agency rules could be reversed by future administrations and that only Congress can grant the CFTC broader authority over spot crypto markets, which the Clarity Act would have provided.

Price reaction

Following Hougan’s comments, Bitcoin fell roughly 4%, reflecting the mixed sentiment around regulatory developments.