Arthur Hayes Forecasts $1 Million Bitcoin by 2030 While Favoring Ethereum for Near‑Term Gains

BitMEX co‑founder Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin has the fundamentals to climb to $1 million by 2030, yet he is allocating new capital to Ethereum, which he expects to deliver a 3‑to‑5‑fold increase in the near term.

Bitcoin outlook

Hayes cites the collapse of the AI bubble, extensive money printing, and potential U.S. yield‑curve control as macro factors that could drive Bitcoin higher. He describes the current $58,000 level as a bottom and expects a “grind higher” from this point. He notes Bitcoin’s price is up 22.15 % over the past 30 days.

Ethereum as the preferred allocation

Despite his bullish Bitcoin view, Hayes says Ethereum offers a better risk‑reward profile for new fiat deployment. He expects Ethereum to achieve a 3‑to‑5× price increase quickly, citing its role as the base layer for DeFi and its recent underperformance relative to its 2021 peak.

BitMEX shutdown

Hayes announced that BitMEX will cease operations on September 23, urging users to close positions and withdraw funds. He framed the shutdown as a voluntary decision, emphasizing that running a crypto exchange has become prohibitively costly without the scale of major players.

Views on Hyperliquid and political influence

Hayes expressed reduced optimism for Hyperliquid, noting that its price dynamics lack the asymmetry he seeks. He also dismissed the impact of U.S. political statements on crypto prices, stating that actions by the Treasury, the Fed, and other monetary authorities are the primary drivers.