Analyst Identifies Fifth Historic Bitcoin Bull‑Market Signal

Cryptoquant contributor Darkfost highlighted a fifth occurrence of a historic Bitcoin bull‑market signal on September 24, 2026. The signal is based on a cost‑basis crossover where the average price paid by short‑term holders moves above that of active long‑term holders.

What the Signal Measures

The indicator compares estimated cost bases of two holder groups. Short‑term holders are defined by recent activity, while long‑term holders are limited to coins that have moved at least once in the past seven years, excluding dormant supply older than that period. When the short‑term cost basis exceeds the long‑term cost basis, the metric signals bullish momentum.

Historical Context

Previous crossovers were recorded in 2012, 2015, 2019, and 2023. The current crossover marks the fifth time this pattern has appeared, which the analyst cites as adding credibility to the emerging bull market, though he notes a margin for error.

Why Dormant Coins Are Excluded

More than 3.5 million BTC older than ten years remain untouched, growing by roughly 8,000–30,000 BTC each month. The seven‑year activity filter aims to focus on coins that are actively traded, distinguishing them from long‑term dormant holdings that do not influence current market dynamics.

ETF Inflows Provide Additional Liquidity

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $2.06 billion in net inflows from September 21‑23, according to Farside flow data. The three‑day period began with a record daily inflow of $999 million, followed by $714.7 million and $346.9 million on the subsequent days. While the inflows coincide with the signal, the analysis does not claim causation.

Outlook from Cryptoquant Leadership

Cryptoquant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju, in a separate September 22 outlook, suggested that expanding institutional ownership could moderate the extreme price swings of earlier cycles and projected multi‑fold returns for Bitcoin in the current cycle, followed by a milder bear market.