Ethereum Holds Above $2,500 Amid Weak Momentum and Policy Uncertainty

Ethereum (ETH) opened the daily session at $2,477 and rose to a high of $2,535 before settling around $2,512, marking a 1.4% gain. The token remains above key moving averages but lacks the decisive breakout needed to advance toward higher targets.

Price action and technical outlook

On the 4‑hour chart, the Supertrend indicator stayed bullish above $2,429, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) fell to 18.84, indicating a weak trend. Daily Chaikin Money Flow registered a slight negative value (‑0.06), suggesting marginal selling pressure despite the price staying above $2,500.

Major moving averages on the daily chart are all below the current price: 20‑day SMA at $2,474, 50‑day SMA at $2,198, 100‑day SMA at $1,975, and 200‑day SMA at $2,061. The $2,535‑$2,550 zone remains the immediate resistance, and a daily close above $2,550 is required to validate a breakout toward $2,700‑$2,800.

Potential downside

If ETH falls below the 4‑hour Supertrend level of $2,429, the short‑term bullish signal would be invalidated, exposing the $2,350‑$2,400 range. A breach of the 20‑day SMA at $2,474 could trigger further downside toward the 50‑day SMA at $2,198.

Macro and regulatory backdrop

The price range coincides with market anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s Sep. 16 policy decision, where a 25‑basis‑point rate hike is widely expected. Higher Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar add pressure to risk assets, including ETH.

In parallel, the US Senate is set to consider crypto market‑structure legislation. A favorable outcome could improve sentiment for US‑focused crypto assets, though price action still hinges on technical confirmation.