Bitcoin Reclaims 50‑Week EMA Amid Strong August Rally

Bitcoin (BTC) closed the last week of August above its 50‑week exponential moving average (EMA) at $77,752, a level not breached since November 2025. The move comes as markets focus on the Jackson Hole symposium and recent U.S. Treasury debt‑buyback activity.

Technical milestone

The weekly candle closed at $77,727 on Bitstamp, reclaiming the 50‑week EMA, a key resistance trendline used by traders in bear markets. Analysts note that the price still faces resistance around the $80,000 area.

On‑chain profitability

CryptoQuant reported that short‑term holders (UTXOs younger than 155 days) are now net profitable by about 11%, while long‑term holders moved to roughly +18.5% profitability. New money entered the market at a breakeven point near $73,000, indicating that the $68,000‑$73,000 region is critical for sustaining gains.

Macro backdrop

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is speaking at the Jackson Hole symposium, with market expectations showing a 63.1% probability that rates will stay in the 3.50‑3.75% range after the September FOMC meeting. The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is slated for release, with consensus for a 0.1% monthly increase.

ETF inflows

Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.9 billion in net inflows over the week, the strongest weekly total since October 2025. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) alone saw over $500 million in inflows on Thursday.

Market sentiment

Bitcoin is up about 22% month‑to‑date, delivering its best August performance since 2017. Traders remain cautious, noting that past bear‑market relief rallies have often been followed by sharp retracements.