Goldman Sachs Forecasts Gold to Reach $4,900 per Ounce by Year-End

Goldman Sachs analysts expect gold to rise to $4,900 per troy ounce by the end of 2026. The forecast is anchored in a projected increase in central‑bank purchases, which the bank estimates will average 50 tonnes per month this year.

Key Drivers of the Forecast

• Central banks are anticipated to buy 50 tonnes of gold each month, a rise of roughly 300% from pre‑2022 levels.
• Reduced expectations for further U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes are expected to lower inflation pressures and keep rates steady.
• Geopolitical tensions and concerns about fiscal sustainability are prompting reserve diversification.

Central‑Bank Buying Trends

Goldman Sachs notes that central‑bank acquisitions have accelerated, with June purchases averaging 100 tonnes and May purchases at 66 tonnes. The bank describes this as a multi‑year trend of reserve diversification.

Potential Influence of Private Investors

While the analysis focuses on central‑bank demand, the bank acknowledges that private investors could increase gold holdings in response to geopolitical developments and concerns about fiscal policy, though private‑portfolio exposure remains relatively low.

Outlook

The analysts expect the “debasement trade” narrative—concerns about currency dilution—to provide additional medium‑term support for gold prices, potentially pushing the metal above the $4,900 target.