Kalshi Handles Over $40 B in Monthly Volume, Capturing About 80% of U.S. Prediction Market

Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction‑market exchange, reported more than $40 billion in monthly trading volume, representing roughly 80% of all U.S. prediction‑market activity.

Volume Milestones

On September 4, Kalshi’s 30‑day rolling volume reached $14.1 billion, compared with $3.1 billion for Polymarket, giving Kalshi an estimated 82% share of the two‑venue market.

The gap widened after Kalshi first overtook Polymarket in April, posting $5.42 billion in taker volume versus Polymarket’s $1.99 billion. Combined monthly volume for the two platforms grew from under $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion by April 2026.

Regulatory Context

Kalshi received Designated Contract Market (DCM) approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2021, making it the first regulated prediction exchange in the United States. The Senate voted 49‑50 on September 15 to block the CLARITY Act, a bill intended to create a uniform regulatory framework for crypto markets. The vote fell short of the 60 votes needed to invoke cloture, effectively halting market‑structure legislation for 2026.

Implications

Bitcoin historian Pete Rizzo highlighted that Kalshi’s performance demonstrates the ability of a regulated venue to scale without new legislation. While Kalshi’s contracts are event futures under existing CFTC rules, spot token markets and custodial exchanges remain outside that regulatory scope.

Market Focus

Sports betting accounts for over 80% of Kalshi’s trading activity. The platform’s growth has attracted significant capital, with a recent fundraising round valuing Kalshi at $40 billion, double its valuation six months earlier.