Bitcoin eyes $80,000 support as US inflation data and Fed decision loom

Bitcoin (BTC) closed above $80,000 for the first time since early May, but the price remains vulnerable as markets await key US inflation reports and the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting.

US inflation data and Fed rate outlook

Thursday and Friday will see the release of the August Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI is expected to match the prior month’s 0.1% month‑on‑month and 3.4% year‑on‑year gains. Fed officials have noted that, despite lower headline inflation, underlying trends have not improved enough to change policy.

Market pricing, based on the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, shows a 58.4% probability of a 0.25% rate hike at the September 16 meeting. The outlook is reinforced by stronger‑than‑expected August non‑farm payrolls, which added 162,000 jobs.

Japanese yen interventions and broader market impact

Japan’s Ministry of Finance reported a $79.57 billion drop in foreign reserves after a record yen‑support intervention that pushed the currency to around 155 per US dollar. Analysts suggest the intervention likely involved the sale of US Treasuries, a move that could affect US bond yields and create tension with Washington.

Traders are pricing a 0.25% rate hike by the Bank of Japan in September, with a 98% probability on Polymarket.

Bitcoin’s market dynamics

On‑chain data from CryptoQuant shows a sharp rise in open interest on derivatives exchanges, increasing by $2.3 billion in a single session. While this indicates strong futures activity, spot demand remains weak, with outflows of BTC continuing.

Liquidity analysis from CoinGlass identifies a resistance band around $80,560, and Glassnode highlights a dense short‑liquidation zone between $83,000 and $86,000, suggesting that price may stay confined between these levels.

Technical signals

The weekly supertrend indicator turned green for the first time since November 2025, a bullish signal that historically precedes longer‑term uptrends. Bitcoin also closed above its 50‑week exponential moving average in August, another historically bullish cue.