Pantera’s Dan Morehead Labels Treasury Bond Buyback a ‘Bluff’ That Backfired

Pantera Capital founder Dan Morehead criticized the U.S. Treasury’s recent expansion of its bond‑buyback program, calling it a bluff that backfired. He linked the move to Bitcoin’s strong performance in August.

Treasury’s expanded buyback

On August 19, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the Treasury would double the size of its bond‑buyback operations, raising the cap to at least $4 billion per transaction. The program is intended to repurchase government debt and influence bond yields.

Morehead’s assessment

Morehead argued that the increase was negligible compared with the roughly $2 trillion of bonds the Treasury must sell each year. He said the disparity highlighted the scale of the debt issue rather than solving it, noting that “everyone could see they are off by three orders of magnitude.”

Bitcoin’s August rally

Bitcoin rose about 26 % in August, its strongest month since November 2025 and the first net‑positive August since 2021, briefly reaching above $81,000. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading near $77,258.

Broader market context

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium suggested that stronger economic growth could lead to higher rates, reducing the appeal of yield‑free assets such as Bitcoin. Both gold and Bitcoin retreated after his speech, providing a counterpoint to Morehead’s bullish view.

Outlook

Morehead reiterated his view that crypto acts as a macro trade that benefits when governments expand debt. He referenced Pantera’s prior forecast that Bitcoin would peak at $117,542 on August 10, 2025—a target that had not yet been reached. He expects a new upswing to begin near the end of the year, followed by a multi‑year rally.