Standard Chartered Sets $10 Target for Arbitrum Token Amid Robinhood Chain Revenue Growth

Standard Chartered began coverage of Arbitrum’s ARB token with a price target of $10 by the end of 2030. The bank’s forecast is based on revenue licensing Arbitrum’s technology to traditional finance (TradFi) firms and taking a share of those firms’ earnings.

Price Forecast and Current Valuation

Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, projects ARB to reach $0.50 by end‑2026, $1.50 by end‑2027, $3.50 by end‑2028, $6.50 by end‑2029 and $10.00 by end‑2030. The token traded around $0.137, giving it a market capitalization of roughly $916 million.

Revenue Sources for Arbitrum

Arbitrum’s income comes from four streams:

• Transaction fees on Arbitrum One (approximately 97% gross margin).
• Returns from treasury management of non‑ARB assets.
• Timeboost express‑lane auction fees.
• Arbitrum Expansion Program (AEP) fees – a 10% cut of a licensee’s net protocol revenue, split 8% to the Arbitrum DAO and 2% to developers.

The Robinhood Chain, launched on July 1, is the most prominent AEP licensee. In the first half of September, Robinhood Chain generated $37.31 million in fees, dwarfing Arbitrum One’s $454,175 over the same period.

Assumptions Behind the $10 Target

Standard Chartered estimates September revenue at about $5 million, assuming Robinhood Chain produces $60 million in gross fees for the month. Actual fees have been lower, with a recent average of $2.31 million per day and a decline of 93% from the September 4 peak.

Token Economics and Supply

ARB is a governance token with a 10 billion maximum supply; 92.3% is vested, and the circulating supply is about 6.68 billion. The token does not currently receive direct revenue streams, and fees are held as “reinvested earnings.” The note suggests a token buy‑back program could emerge as the ecosystem matures.

Broader Market Context

Standard Chartered also projects Bitcoin to reach $500,000 and Ether to $40,000 by 2030. The bank values Arbitrum at a multiple of 1.3 times annualized three‑month ecosystem fees, compared with multiples of up to 25 for Ethereum, Solana and Avalanche.

Tokenization Outlook

The forecast relies on growth in tokenized assets, projecting a $4 trillion market by 2028 and tokenized equities reaching $750 billion. Robinhood’s tokenized assets total $152 billion, with the bank estimating $200 billion of stock tokens on its chain.