UBS Forecasts Two Fed Rate Hikes This Year, Extending Bitcoin’s Macro Headwinds

UBS Global Wealth Management has revised its outlook for the U.S. Federal Reserve, now forecasting two 25‑basis‑point rate hikes this year – one in September and another in December. The change follows a robust August jobs report and reflects concerns over inflation from supply‑chain bottlenecks.

Labor market strength drives the shift

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 162,000 jobs added in August, keeping unemployment at 4.1%. Hiring outpaced the 12‑month average of 31,000 jobs per month, though gains were uneven across sectors.

Implications for Bitcoin

Higher expected rates can keep Treasury yields elevated, making dollar‑denominated interest‑bearing assets more attractive relative to Bitcoin, which yields no interest. This raises the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin and could dampen risk‑taking in the crypto market.

• Futures markets now price a roughly 58% chance of a 0.25% hike at the September 15‑16 FOMC meeting, up from 52% before the jobs data.
• Bitcoin was trading around $79,375 on September 7.
• Higher borrowing costs may constrain leveraged positions and reduce fresh capital inflows into risk assets.

Looking ahead

The next key data point is the August CPI release on September 11, which will influence the September Fed decision. A cooler inflation reading could support a hold, while a hotter reading may reinforce the case for further tightening.

Beyond September, UBS’s December hike forecast adds a longer‑term macro constraint. If inflation remains persistent, Bitcoin could face continued pressure through the end of the year.