The 18-Year Housing Cycle Says the Next Market Crash Is Close

Macro analyst Jason Pizzino argues that the United States housing market is entering the peak phase of an 18‑year cycle that began around 2011‑2012. He suggests that this could signal broader market stress, including for equities and cryptocurrencies.

Housing Cycle Indicators

• US home‑price growth slowed to 1.5% year‑on‑year in June, with prices falling in real terms for a 13th consecutive month.
• July new‑home sales dropped 10.5% and the median price fell to $393,800, the lowest level in five years.
• Builder confidence measured at 35, well below the neutral threshold of 50.

Potential Stock‑Market Implications

Pizzino points to home‑builder D.R. Horton as a leading indicator. The company’s price peaked in late 2024, and a break below roughly $130 could signal a broader market top around late 2026 or early 2027. D.R. Horton closed at $142.75 on the referenced Friday.

The S&P 500 was trading near record levels, closing at 7,718.60, about 1% below its August 13 peak.

Bitcoin Outlook

Bitcoin was trading near $79,700, a sharp rise from its July low of around $57,700, and had reclaimed its 200‑day moving average. Pizzino projects a possible rally to $120,000, with $180,000 considered unlikely if credit conditions tighten further.

Analyst Perspectives

Another analyst, Benjamin Cowen, cautions against treating the housing cycle as a precise trading signal, emphasizing a steady investment approach regardless of potential corrections.

Both analysts advise having a clear plan before credit conditions change and to trade within the markets that are currently available.