XRP hits 13‑year low RSI, sparking debate on cycle bottom

XRP is hovering around $1.29 following a sharp correction that drove its two‑week Relative Strength Index (RSI) to a 13‑year low. The extreme reading has reignited debate among analysts about whether the token has finally reached the bottom of its current cycle.

Record‑low RSI and historical context

Analyst Cryptollica highlighted that the two‑week RSI, now near 33.5, has fallen below levels seen during the 2018 bear market, the 2020 COVID‑related crash, and the 2022 crypto winter. The chart shows XRP still inside a long‑term rising channel, with price sitting near the channel’s lower boundary – an area that has historically acted as strong support.

Analyst perspectives

Cryptollica argued that market sentiment may be misreading the moment: despite a collapsed short‑term outlook, the higher‑timeframe trendline remains intact, and such extreme oversold conditions have often preceded major rallies.

EGRAG Crypto added that the two‑month RSI has re‑entered a historical zone associated with prior bottoming processes, emphasizing that the behavior within that zone matters more than the exact RSI number.

ChartNerd warned that XRP remains compressed between the 20‑week EMA near $1.29 and the 50‑week EMA resistance around $1.52. A sustained weekly close below $1.29 could open a path toward the $1.00 psychological level, indicating continued consolidation rather than a confirmed reversal.

CrediBULL Crypto offered a more optimistic view, noting that relative strength is already improving from recent lows and that the token sits at a technical inflection point. The analyst expects a short‑ to mid‑term upside of 50 % or more if the bottom zone holds.

What to watch

The outcome hinges on price action around the $1.29 level. Holding the long‑term rising channel would strengthen the case for a bottom, while a decisive break below could shift focus to deeper support around $1.00.