Benjamin Cowen Admits Bitcoin Bear Call Was Wrong After $85,000 Surge

Benjamin Cowen, the analyst behind Into The Cryptoverse, acknowledged that his bearish forecast for Bitcoin did not materialize when the cryptocurrency surged past $85,000, triggering a sharp squeeze of short positions.

Background of the Bearish Forecast

Cowen based his outlook on cycle analysis, a method that projects Bitcoin’s price path using patterns from previous four‑year market cycles. In early September he assigned a 65% probability that Bitcoin’s cycle low was still ahead and highlighted the $53,000 level as a historically significant test point. His July memo anticipated a fourth‑quarter bottom, most likely in October, and even considered a downside scenario near $44,000.

Market Reaction to the Breakout

When Bitcoin moved above $85,000, short positions were liquidated for more than $831 million within 24 hours, while long liquidations amounted to roughly $130 million, according to CoinGlass data. The imbalance reflected the heavy short exposure that many traders had taken based on Cowen’s bearish narrative.

Cowen’s Response and Community Feedback

Cowen posted on X that he was wrong, offered no excuses, and expected criticism. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe described him as one of the few consistently honest bears, while Michael Saylor responded with a brief “welcome back.”

Implications for Investors

The episode underscores that cycle models are probabilistic tools, not guarantees. With Bitcoin holding above $85,000, the focus now shifts to whether the rally can sustain a longer‑term bull phase, though mid‑term risks remain.