Willy Woo Says Bitcoin May Ditch the Halving Cycle and Switch to a 6-8 Year TradFi Cycle

On‑chain analyst Willy Woo argues that Bitcoin’s historic four‑year halving‑driven cycle may be losing relevance and that the market could instead align with the six‑to‑eight‑year debt cycle observed in traditional finance (TradFi).

Why the 4‑Year Halving Cycle May Be Weakening

Since the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin’s issuance rate has hovered around 0.8 % of total supply and is expected to fall to roughly 0.4 % after the 2028 halving. For comparison, gold miners added about 1.7 % to above‑ground stock in 2025, indicating that Bitcoin’s supply shock is now smaller than that of gold. Fidelity Digital Assets reported a decline in volatility even as Bitcoin reached record highs, suggesting a maturation of the asset. The presence of spot exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) – a development absent in previous cycles – also represents a structural shift.

TradFi’s 6‑8 Year Debt Cycle

The debt cycle described by economist Ray Dalio is driven by changes in interest rates, credit availability, and macro‑economic demand. Data from the National Bureau of Economic Research shows the average post‑war U.S. cycle lasts about 75 months (just over six years). Woo notes that the last Bitcoin cycle loosely matches this pattern: a rate‑cut environment in March 2020 preceded Bitcoin’s peak in November 2021, followed by rate hikes starting March 2022 and a subsequent bear market.

Debate Over the Dominant Cycle

Proponents of the traditional halving model point to Bitcoin’s peak roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving and the ensuing drawdown, mirroring the 2017 and 2021 cycles. Critics highlight the limited sample size – Bitcoin has completed only four halving cycles – making it difficult to confirm a longer‑term pattern.

Implications for Price Outlook

Bitcoin rose from about $62,900 at the start of August to near $78,011, still roughly 38 % below its all‑time high of $126,198. If the halving no longer sets the market’s clock, Bitcoin may behave more like a macro‑sensitive asset, with price movements tied to Federal Reserve policy rather than the halving schedule. Under the traditional model, a bottom is expected about a year after the peak, suggesting a low in late 2026 and a recovery toward the 2028 halving. A longer, debt‑cycle‑aligned orbit could push the bottom into 2027 or later, with rallies tracking periods of monetary easing.