Prediction Markets Show Cautious Outlook for Bitcoin, Targeting Around $81,000 by Year-End

Bitcoin’s price has risen roughly 22% over the past month, trading between $78,700 and $79,600 on the day of reporting. Despite bullish commentary from Wall Street and other sources, prediction‑market participants remain cautious about the cryptocurrency’s trajectory for the remainder of 2026.

Polymarket Shows Moderate Bullishness

On Polymarket, bettors assign a 73% probability that Bitcoin will reach $85,000 by year‑end. The market has attracted about $63.92 million in volume for the question “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?” Odds decline sharply beyond six‑figure levels: $90,000 is priced at 51%, $100,000 at 26%, $120,000 at 10% and $150,000 at 3%.

Downside scenarios retain similar odds, with $70,000 at 52% and $75,000 at 74%. Lower price points such as $60,000 and $50,000 carry 25% and 15% chances respectively.

Kalshi Centers Around $81,000

Kalshi’s $35 million Bitcoin‑price market places the most likely outcome near $81,000. Probabilities cluster in the $75,000‑$79,999 range (12.5%) and $80,000‑$84,999 range (11.9%). Higher brackets see reduced confidence: $90,000‑$94,999 at 7.7%, $95,000‑$99,999 at 5.6%, and $100,000‑$104,999 at 3.7%.

Myriad’s Pump‑or‑Dump Market Skews Bullish

Myriad’s smaller market, with $235,000 in volume, pits an $84,000 “pump” against a $55,000 “dump.” Traders price the bullish outcome at roughly five times the probability of the bearish one. A related Kalshi market on the same theme shows an 83% chance of hitting $100,000 versus an 18% chance of falling to $50,000.

Overall Sentiment

Across the three platforms, the consensus points to a relatively flat price path, with modest upside potential but little expectation of a dramatic rally. Real money is being wagered on these outcomes, suggesting market participants are not convinced of a major breakout before year‑end.