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Pound vs US Dollar: Scotiabank's 1.41 Call vs Market's 1.3446
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#Shorts British Pound sentiment supports further gains against the US Dollar, according to Scotiabank's latest analysis on Monday 24/08/2026. GBP/USD is trading in the mid-1.36s, just below the six-month high near 1.3675, and the key question is whether the pair can hold above the 1.3650 to 1.3660 resistance zone. In this video, I explain the real driver behind the move, why the options market is turning more bullish, and what a sustained break higher would mean for pound-dollar forecasts. Scotiabank's conditional year-end objective is 1.41, while the median fourth-quarter forecast from a 21-bank survey is only 1.3446. That gap means traders and forecasters disagree sharply about whether this rally reflects genuine pound strength or just broad US dollar weakness. I also cover the latest UK data, including July retail consumption missing expectations, August services and manufacturing…
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Analysis last updated August 25, 2026 · Read the methodologyRead the creator’s original video description
#Shorts British Pound sentiment supports further gains against the US Dollar, according to Scotiabank's latest analysis on Monday 24/08/2026. GBP/USD is trading in the mid-1.36s, just below the six-month high near 1.3675, and the key question is whether the pair can hold above the 1.3650 to 1.3660 resistance zone. In this video, I explain the real driver behind the move, why the options market is turning more bullish, and what a sustained break higher would mean for pound-dollar forecasts. Scotiabank's conditional year-end objective is 1.41, while the median fourth-quarter forecast from a 21-bank survey is only 1.3446. That gap means traders and forecasters disagree sharply about whether this rally reflects genuine pound strength or just broad US dollar weakness. I also cover the latest UK data, including July retail consumption missing expectations, August services and manufacturing activity beating forecasts, and CBI manufacturing orders improving to their best level since late 2024. What you will learn: • Why Scotiabank sees further GBP/USD gains towards the upper 1.38s and the 1.41 trigger • The exact resistance levels at 1.3650, 1.3660 and 1.3848 you need to watch today • How risk reversals in the options market reveal fading downside fear • The support levels at 1.36, 1.3550, 1.35 and 1.3150 if the breakout fails • What Bank of England rate expectations versus Federal Reserve rate cuts mean for the pound • The wide gap between Scotiabank's 1.41 call and the 1.3446 consensus forecast • The broader market mood shift and why options traders are no longer paying for downside protection Watch until the end to see the specific price confirmation that could unlock the next leg higher, and