Trump and Harris Odds in Nevada Flip Flop as Election Day Information Jolts Prediction Markets – Decrypt

Kamala Harris briefly took the lead on blockchain-based prediction markets on Nevada’s presidential election outcomes Tuesday, as merchants reacted to recent knowledge on voter turnout within the swing state’s most populous county.

The Democratic presidential candidate had amassed 55% of betting quantity on crypto-focused prediction market Polymarket as of 11:50 a.m. ET, the info reveals. The percentages briefly flipped in Harris’ favor shortly after early Election Day voting knowledge on Tuesday confirmed that Republican and Democrat voter turnout was almost equal in Clark County, Nevada.

Trump later retook a slight lead over his political adversary, which he nonetheless holds with 56% of betting quantity as of writing time.

Over at Kalshi, one other prediction markets platform, Harris briefly took the lead in Nevada round 10am PST, leaping as much as a 52.5% probability of profitable. Nonetheless, Trump has taken over once more at 53% in comparison with Harris at 47%.

The info, which was circulated on Twitter (aka X), reveals that registered Democrats accounted for 31.5% of voters at native polls, whereas registered Republicans made up 29.9% of those that confirmed as much as forged ballots, as of 9am PST. In the meantime, different voters made up 38.5% of those that flocked to Clark County’s polls.

The most recent knowledge as of 11:10am PST reveals Democrats on high nonetheless with roughly 31.5% of Election Day voting within the county. Republicans had a commanding lead within the county in 2022 as of that point, with the early 2024 knowledge apparently spooking bettors who figured the GOP would once more handily carry Clark.

Clark County is essentially the most populous of Nevada’s counties, with 2.3 million residents and 70 p.c of the state’s inhabitants. As such, the county has essentially the most sway over who will clinch Nevada’s six electoral votes.

The winner of the U.S. Presidential Election should accumulate 270 electoral votes. The Related Press, which calls U.S. elections, has not but tabulated voter knowledge in Nevada. Polls within the state shut at 7pm PST, in accordance with the AP.

Members of the general public have been watching prediction market exercise for months to foretell who will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Proponents of prediction markets say that they’re extra correct gauges of the outcomes of future occasions than conventional polls, whereas detractors argue that the markets undergo from a conservative bias.

Edited by Andrew Hayward