Bitcoin (BTC) may see a turnaround this weekend after six consecutive weekends of unfavorable returns, in line with Normal Chartered head of digital belongings analysis Geoffrey Kendrick.
In a analysis word shared with CryptoSlate on Feb. 14, Kendrick highlighted Bitcoin’s latest sample of weak weekend value motion, with each weekend since early January posting unfavorable returns.
He attributed the declines to market-moving headlines, together with volatility tied to DeepSeek-related information in late January and tariff considerations on Feb. 12.
Nevertheless, with macroeconomic circumstances enhancing and US bond yields trending decrease, he sees the next likelihood of constructive weekend efficiency.
“Given we now have had the unhealthy information (as beneath re tariffs) and US 10Y yields are at the moment down on the week (and really importantly beneath 4.5%), I believe this weekend will likely be totally different.”
Market setup factors to restoration
Kendrick analyzed Bitcoin’s day-of-week efficiency in 2024, noting that Mondays and Fridays have usually been the strongest buying and selling days.
In distinction, weekend classes have been lackluster, probably exacerbated by decrease liquidity and risk-off sentiment amongst merchants.
He recommended {that a} small constructive catalyst over the weekend may immediate renewed ETF inflows on Monday, serving to Bitcoin get away of its latest buying and selling vary. Kendrick famous:
“A small constructive over the weekend can result in ETF shopping for Monday after per week of ETF outflows.”
He added that Bitcoin may then check key psychological ranges at $100,000 and $102,500 since it’s a “Giffen good in spite of everything,” referencing the financial concept the place demand will increase as costs rise.
Regardless of latest weak spot, Bitcoin has remained in an uptrend, gaining greater than 20% year-to-date.
Tariff uncertainty
Past Bitcoin’s technical outlook, Kendrick additionally mentioned broader macroeconomic developments, notably the affect of US inflation knowledge and shifting expectations round former President Donald Trump’s potential insurance policies.
US Treasury yields declined following a softer-than-expected Client Value Index (CPI) report earlier within the week and a weaker-than-expected Producer Value Index (PPI) studying on Feb. 14.
The ten-year Treasury yield, which traders intently watch as a gauge of borrowing prices and danger urge for food, remained beneath 4.5%, a stage Kendrick sees as constructive for digital belongings.
Based on the analyst:
“If newest headlines are to be believed, we’re previous unhealthy Trump from a tariff perspective, with reciprocal tariffs solely taking impact April 1.”
He additionally recommended that optimism round a possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal may additional shift market sentiment. He famous:
“On the prospect of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, we could also be lastly shifting from unhealthy Trump to good Trump so far as danger belongings are involved.”
Kendrick reiterated his bullish stance on Bitcoin, suggesting that if these macro elements maintain, the crypto might be on observe to hit $102,500 within the close to time period.
Primarily based on CryptoSlate knowledge, Bitcoin was buying and selling at $97,348 as of press time, up 2% over the previous 24 hours.
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