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Key Takeaways
What are the percentages of SOL hitting $500 in 2026?
Solely about 1%, per Deribit Choices information — displaying the market hasn’t priced in a possible 3x transfer but.
How a lot influx may SOL ETFs entice?
As much as $3 billion over the following 12 months, in accordance with Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.
Solana [SOL] shed almost half of its peak worth of about $300 and slipped under $150 throughout early This autumn 2025 headwinds.
As of writing, the altcoin traded at $169, representing a 16% restoration from its latest lows of $146, however nonetheless 32% down from its October excessive of $253.
Amid the sluggish restoration, institutional bids grew for the newly permitted Grayscale and Bitwise Spot SOL ETFs, each of which embody staking.}
Actually, Soso Worth information indicated that the merchandise skilled a surge in inflows since their debut in late October, regardless of the decline recorded within the broader market.
Supply: Soso Worth
Total, the merchandise have attracted a complete of $336 million in internet inflows since their launch. So, how far can the inflows prolong and what’s their potential impression on SOL’s worth in 2026?
SOL ETF flows vs worth
Based on Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, the merchandise may entice $3 billion in inflows over the following 12-18 months, primarily based on SOL’s relative market cap to Bitcoin [BTC].
For comparability, U.S. Spot BTC ETFs did over $30 billion in Netflows after a yr of their debut.
One other ETF flows-based mannequin by market maker, GSR, instructed that SOL may rally 1.4X in a bear case, or blast 3.4x to eight.9x in base or bullish “sky” situations.
Supply: GSR
On the time of the mission, SOL was valued at round $149. GSR anticipated the asset to succeed in between $208 and over $1,300 if ETFs are permitted.
Seyffart’s $3 billion projection would translate to GSR’s goal vary from “baseline” to “blue sky.” This suggests a worth vary of $500 to $700 or $1,300 to $1,600 by subsequent yr.
If these projections are validated, the present $169 worth would characterize a big low cost.
The Spot Retail Exercise, which tracks retail presence, was at “impartial” ranges. This means that additional upside potential is possible.
Supply: CryptoQuant
Nevertheless, the mid-term positioning was blended and skewed for extra draw back. Based on Choices information, most quantity was concentrated at $120-$130, regardless of bullish expectations for an upswing to $220 or $300.
Supply: Laevitas
Notably, the odds of tagging $400 in 2026 had been at 11% and 1% for $500. It underscored that, as of press time, the market was not pricing a 3x transfer within the subsequent 12 months, regardless of a optimistic outlook for ETF flows.