Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says crypto might have simply crossed into a brand new structural period—and he argues that Coinbase is the catalyst. In a November 11 memo titled “The Subsequent Massive Disruption From Crypto,” Hougan writes that he “caught a glimpse of the longer term this week,” figuring out a fourth main crypto-driven disruption: capital formation.
Hougan frames the event inside his long-running meta thesis that crypto is “going to reinvent the elemental elements of finance.” He highlights Bitcoin as “reinventing gold,” stablecoins as “reinventing {dollars},” and tokenization as “reinventing buying and selling and settlement.” He stresses that crypto stays early in every cycle however says the endgame is already seen: “I count on that finally most property will probably be tokenized, most {dollars} will transfer on stablecoin rails, and bitcoin will probably be as extensively accepted as gold.”
What modified this week, he argues, is the emergence of a viable, institutionalized ICO mannequin. “We added a fourth class: capital formation,” Hougan writes. “I believe it will likely be a defining theme of crypto in 2026.”
To make that case, Hougan revisits the standard IPO market—one he describes as “sclerotic and closely skewed towards particular person traders.” Establishments fund VCs, VCs fund one of the best startups, startups keep non-public for years, and retail is left with scraps on the finish. “Retail solely will get to take part on the finish of the journey,” he writes, in a system weighed down by “seemingly infinite rules.”
A Crypto Plot Twist: Coinbase Revives ICOs
Crypto tried to interrupt this sample as soon as earlier than. “It was—let’s be trustworthy right here—an entire catastrophe,” he says concerning the 2017–2018 ICO growth. “The overwhelming majority of ICOs turned out to be scams.” With no guardrails, “charlatans raised billions from the unsuspecting public,” finally forcing the SEC to intervene. “Its huge crackdown in 2018 destroyed the ICO pattern and drove crypto right into a deep bear market.”
However Hougan insists the failure masked an underlying fact. “As dangerous as ICOs had been, they did show one thing fascinating: Crypto might be used to lift capital quickly for brand spanking new initiatives.” ICOs confirmed a mannequin that was “lower-cost, quicker, and extra egalitarian” than IPOs, even when the execution was fatally flawed.
The distinction immediately, he argues, is regulatory intent and institutional structure. Hougan highlights SEC Chairman Paul Atkins—previously co-chair of the Token Alliance and a board member at Securitize—as a driving pressure behind new pondering. In July, Atkins known as for “new rules and secure harbors that might permit high-quality ICOs to occur.” In keeping with Hougan, Atkins argued that “if we will repair what went mistaken with ICOs 1.0, we might see a growth in new capital formation—all led by crypto.”
That’s the backdrop for Coinbase’s transfer. “On Monday, Coinbase took the primary main step towards making this a actuality,” Hougan writes. Coinbase unveiled a brand new platform that can launch one “fully-vetted” token sale per thirty days, with enforced group disclosures, necessary lockups for insiders, and a standardized screening course of.
“In brief,” Hougan says, “by way of self-regulation, it goals to repair a number of what was mistaken with the 2017-2018 ICO period.”
He’s specific about the place he thinks this goes: “I guess we’ll see a half-dozen or extra billion-dollar ICOs by way of platforms like Coinbase in 2026.” Whereas nonetheless small relative to the standard IPO market—“176 IPOs within the US raised $33 billion in 2024”—Hougan argues that even a handful of profitable ICOs would show a structural level: “Entrepreneurs can elevate capital straight from traders, usually at higher phrases than they’d within the conventional IPO market.”
On the funding aspect, Hougan factors first to Coinbase itself. “The apparent funding is in Coinbase,” he writes, describing the corporate not simply as a brokerage however a multi-lane monetary infrastructure large: “It’s not simply the Charles Schwab of Crypto; it’s Charles Schwab + Goldman Sachs + NYSE + …”
He additionally sees upside for base-layer ecosystems: “A wholesome ICO market will bode effectively for the biggest programmable blockchains, like Ethereum and Solana.”
But the bigger thesis is index-level. “An ICO renaissance,” he writes, “is one other main proof level for crypto as an entire.” Crypto’s narrative grew stronger as stablecoins and tokenization matured; billions raised by way of vetted ICOs would strengthen it additional. His recommendation: “Don’t attempt to choose the horse; guess on the race.”
At press time, the full crypto market cap stood at $3.42 trillion.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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