VanEck mentioned a current pullback in bitcoin mining exercise might be flashing a bullish contrarian sign for the bitcoin worth.
Hashrate drop and ahead returns
In its “Mid-December 2025 ChainCheck” report, VanEck mentioned bitcoin has traditionally been extra more likely to publish constructive 90-day returns when the community’s hashrate is shrinking.
VanEck wrote that since 2014, 90-day ahead returns have been constructive 65% of the time throughout hashrate contraction, versus 54% when hashrate was rising.
The agency acknowledged:
“Some empirical proof suggests drops in hashrate will be bullish for long-term holders.”
VanEck described the connection as a “contrarian sign” linked to miner capitulation.
Bitcoin’s community hashrate fell about 4% within the month via Dec. 15, VanEck mentioned, marking the sharpest decline since April 2024.
Stress on mining economics
VanEck mentioned mining profitability has worsened alongside bitcoin’s worth weak spot.
The report estimated breakeven electrical energy prices for a mid-generation Antminer S19 XP fell from about $0.12 per kWh in late 2024 to roughly $0.077 by mid-December 2025.
Treasuries shopping for the dip
VanEck mentioned longer-term institutional consumers have been absorbing provide.
From mid-November to mid-December, digital asset treasuries purchased roughly 42,000 BTC, lifting mixture holdings to about 1.09 million BTC, in keeping with the report.
VanEck added:
“Going ahead, we consider many DATs’ methods can be to maneuver away from frequent inventory issuance and as a substitute finance BTC purchases with proceeds from desire share gross sales.”