Veteran on-chain analyst Willy Woo has warned that the Bitcoin (BTC) market is strengthening its bear pattern and approaching the second section of a multi-stage downturn.
The forecast challenges persistent bullish narratives, suggesting the worst could also be forward for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
Part 1 Nears Its Finish as Volatility Spells Hassle
In a sequence of posts on X on February 18, Woo outlined a three-phase bear market framework, positioning Bitcoin at a vital juncture. Based on him, the primary stage of the present bear market began within the third quarter of 2025 when liquidity first broke down, and the value began to observe.
He defined that the important thing sign comes from volatility metrics utilized by quantitative analysts, with Bitcoin getting into a protracted decline when volatility spiked upward. That volatility remains to be climbing, indicating the bear pattern is gaining floor.
“On this section, perma bulls will blindly say it’s a correction inside a broader bull market however won’t provide you with any arduous proof of capital flowing in,” Woo wrote.
The analyst added that his inner liquidity fashions, launched weekly to traders, at present match the volatility indicators. In his opinion, the second a part of the bear market will kick in when international equities start to weaken.
He argued that the biggest cryptocurrency typically reacts sooner than equities when capital exits markets due to its smaller dimension and better sensitivity to liquidity shifts.
“Below this bear market framework, BTC is presently in Part 1 and near Part 2,” said Woo.
He characterised the ultimate episode as “the sunshine on the finish of the tunnel,” predicting a turnaround in liquidity, with capital outflows hitting a excessive level earlier than stabilizing. Nonetheless, he warned that there might be yet another value capitulation simply earlier than or instantly after the height outflows.
Cycle Indicators Present Blended Alerts for Lengthy-Time period Outlook
Not all analysts are decoding the info as outright bearish. In a latest put up, Axel Adler Jr. wrote that Bitcoin’s Entity-Adjusted Liveliness metric peaked in December 2025 and has began declining, a sample seen in previous accumulation intervals lasting between 1.1 and a couple of.5 years. The indicator tracks BTC motion relative to holding time and tends to fall after distribution intervals finish.
One other perspective from GugaOnChain centered on valuation. Utilizing the MVRV Z-Rating developed by Murad Mahmudov and David Puell, the analyst stated the present studying close to 0.48 locations Bitcoin near historic accumulation zones reasonably than overheated territory. That implies some traders may even see present costs as discounted in contrast with common acquisition prices.
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