Nasdaq Needs a Piece of the Prediction Market Biz Too – Decrypt

Nasdaq Inc., the father or mother firm of the second-largest inventory alternate by market capitalization, needs to roll out its personal prediction market providing.

The corporate intends to supply choices contracts for yes-or-no bets, which might be priced between 1 cent and $1, based on an SEC submitting submitted early Monday morning.

Nasdaq’s so-called Final result Associated Choices would let merchants take binary positions on whether or not a specified occasion occurs. Binary choices are a simplified model of extra conventional choice contracts that payout relying on the end result of a yes-or-no proposition.

If the requested rull change is authorised, this will probably be Nasdaq’s first foray into the prediction market area—albeit underneath the regulation of the SEC quite than the Commodities Futures Buying and selling Fee. The corporate’s would-be rivals, like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, are all regulated by the CFTC by means of Designated Contract Markets licenses.

Prediction markets are successfully a type of spinoff contracts that permit merchants to wager on the end result of just about something—from inventory and crypto costs to sports activities, cultural, and political occasions. The trade has exploded over the past yr, producing billions in buying and selling quantity on a weekly foundation.

There’s been ongoing discourse, although, about which federal regulator, the SEC or CFTC, has jurisdiction over prediction market platforms. In February, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig mentioned “see you in court docket” in response to state attorneys basic and gaming commissions who’ve argued that prediction markets encroach on their regulatory frameworks.

However there’s additionally been some point out of the SEC having a task in overseeing prediction markets. SEC Chair Paul Atkins has urged that some prediction markets may fall underneath the company’s jurisdiction.

“Prediction markets are precisely one factor the place there’s overlapping jurisdiction probably,” Atkins mentioned on the time, in response to a query from Sen. Dave McCormick (R-PA). “That could be a big situation we’re targeted on.”

Different Wall Avenue giants have already gotten on the sector.

In October 2025, New York Inventory Change proprietor Intercontinental Change invested as much as $2 billion in Polymarket, bringing the corporate’s valuation to a whopping $9 billion. Though a press launch mentioned the funding can be value “as much as $2 billion,” a Polymarket spokesperson informed Decrypt that it was correct to name it a $2 billion funding.

Derivatives alternate CME Group has teamed up with FanDuel for a prediction market providing. And Cboe, its competitor derivatives alternate operator, has taken a technique just like Nasdaq. Final month, the corporate started talks with brokers to supply yes-or-no contracts, unnamed sources informed The Wall Avenue Journal.