Bitcoin (BTC) is heading for its worst weekly efficiency since November 2022, down round 15% week-to-date as of Friday.
BTC/USD weekly chart Supply: TradingView
BTC was buying and selling close to $62,500 after briefly dropping towards $61,000 earlier within the session. The roughly $1,500 rebound confirmed bulls are nonetheless attempting to defend the psychologically vital $60,000 assist degree.
How low can Bitcoin go if it breaks beneath $60,000?
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin is testing its 200-week SMA close to $61,800, a degree that has traditionally acted as main cycle assist.
- Analyst says $55,000 could also be Bitcoin’s worst-case draw back if the 200-week SMA continues to carry.
Bitcoin to $55,000 is the worst-case state of affairs: Analyst
Bitcoin could print a short wick beneath $60,000 earlier than discovering stronger demand, in keeping with analyst Radz.
In a Friday submit, he stated $55,000 may mark the “worst” draw back state of affairs for Bitcoin, citing the 200-week easy transferring common (200-day SMA, pink) because the core purpose behind his bullish outlook.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Supply: BarChart/TradingView
That degree has traditionally acted as one in every of Bitcoin’s strongest long-term assist zones. Earlier retests of the 200-week transferring common in 2019, 2020, 2022 and 2023 both marked main cycle lows that preceded robust restoration phases.
In February 2026, Bitcoin rose by over 37% after testing the 200-week SMA as assist too. This week is BTC’s second try this yr to carry above the pink line, because it treads round $62,000.
Bitcoin bear flag warns of deeper correction towards $50,000
A maturing bear flag on Bitcoin’s chart suggests the correction could lengthen effectively beneath the $55,000 space.
As of Friday, BTC had damaged beneath the flag’s decrease pattern line, with rising buying and selling quantity displaying stronger conviction behind the transfer. In technical evaluation, a bear flag varieties when the value consolidates greater inside a slim channel after a pointy decline, earlier than resuming the prior downtrend.
The measured goal is calculated by subtracting the peak of the previous decline from the breakdown level. In Bitcoin’s case, that tasks a draw back goal close to the $50,000–$51,000 assist zone.
That space additionally aligns with earlier horizontal assist, making it the following main degree to look at if BTC fails to reclaim the flag’s decrease pattern line over the following few days.
Bitcoin onchain knowledge factors to $50,000–$54,000 goal
Bitcoin’s onchain knowledge factors to an identical goal because the bear flag setup.
Glassnode’s MVRV pricing bands present BTC’s realized value (purple) close to $53,740. In easy phrases, realized value is the common value at which the Bitcoin provide final moved onchain. Prior to now, this degree acted like a serious assist degree throughout correction cycles.
BTC MVRV excessive deviation pricing bands. Supply: Glassnode
The identical chart additionally exhibits one other key assist degree (blue) close to $50,560, the place Bitcoin would look less expensive primarily based on onchain valuation.
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Collectively, these ranges create a assist zone between roughly $50,000 and $54,000. That strains up carefully with the bear flag goal close to $50,000 to $51,000.
Bitcoin cup-and-handle breakdown dangers drop towards $33,000
Bitcoin’s weekly chart is displaying one other bearish setup: a potential cup-and-handle breakdown.
The sample exhibits BTC forming a rounded prime, adopted by a smaller rebound try contained in the deal with. Bitcoin value is now weakening close to the decrease finish of that deal with, near the 200-week SMA and the $60,000 assist degree.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Supply: TradingView
If Bitcoin breaks beneath this space decisively, the draw back goal from the sample sits close to $33,000.