The 2026 FIFA World Cup may mark a breakout second for prediction markets, with Coinbase rising as one of many greatest winners, in accordance with a brand new analysis report from Bernstein.
Revealed Thursday, the Bernstein analysts estimate the expanded event will generate greater than $3 billion in incremental sports activities betting deal with and $5 billion to $10 billion in further client prediction market quantity, as 104 matches remodel what is usually the slowest interval for on-line sports activities betting.
FIFA expects the month-long event to draw roughly 6 billion viewers worldwide, up from an estimated 5 billion throughout the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. Matches are scheduled to begin at this time.
Bernstein stated Coinbase has established itself as a significant participant within the sector, surpassing $100 million in annualized prediction market income in March, simply months after launching the product.
As Cointelegraph reported, the crypto trade rolled out prediction markets nationwide via a partnership with Kalshi, permitting customers in all 50 US states to commerce occasion contracts tied to sports activities, politics, tradition and different real-world outcomes.
Robinhood can also be anticipated to profit from the event. Bernstein famous that the brokerage is utilizing the occasion to launch Rothera, its personal US Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee (CFTC)-licensed trade and clearinghouse for prediction markets.
“[W]e count on prediction markets to be the largest driver of incremental income for Robinhood,” the analysts wrote, forecasting roughly $586 million in prediction market income for 2026.
Bernstein expects the FIFA World Cup to remodel the slowest months for on-line sports activities betting into a significant driver of betting and prediction market volumes. Supply: Bernstein
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Sports activities emerge as prediction markets’ greatest development driver
Prediction markets have develop into considered one of crypto’s fastest-growing use circumstances, increasing even because the broader digital asset market has cooled.
An April report by Bitget Pockets and Polymarket discovered that month-to-month prediction market buying and selling quantity reached almost $26 billion, with retail merchants accounting for greater than 80% of customers.
Prediction market volumes have grown significantly since late 2025. Supply: Bitget Pockets
The report additionally pointed to a structural shift in consumer habits. Fairly than attracting exercise round one-off occasions akin to elections, prediction markets are more and more retaining customers throughout recurring classes, with sports activities rising as the biggest phase.
In March alone, sports activities betting accounted for greater than 39% of prediction market volumes, in accordance with Bitget Pockets and Polygon.
The CFTC on Wednesday issued draft guidelines for prediction markets signaling that sports activities occasion contracts are usually not opposite to the general public curiosity despite the fact that federal legislation classifies them as “gaming.”
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