NYDIG has revealed a analysis report arguing that bitcoin’s present cycle contraction is way from full, with the drawdown from the all-time excessive sitting at roughly 52% and key capitulation alerts nonetheless absent.
The agency’s analyst Greg Cipolaro revisited NYDIG’s Bitcoin Cycles Narratives Framework, launched final November, and located it has tracked the market precisely by every section:
“We’re mid-contraction with the reset nonetheless forward.”
Prior contractions ran a lot deeper
NYDIG famous that earlier bitcoin bear markets produced 75% to 85% peak-to-trough drawdowns, and the markers of a accomplished contraction haven’t appeared:
“No long-term-holder capitulation, no terminal insolvencies, and no reset. We have now not moved on to Reconstruction and Reframing.”
The report flagged that Technique made its first-ever bitcoin sale, alongside file ETF outflows and DAT mNAV inversion, as reversal markers already in place.
ETF and company demand are fading
Two pillars of bitcoin’s 2025 rally — spot ETF inflows and company treasury accumulation — have weakened materially in 2026.
At their peak, these consumers absorbed over 48,000 BTC in a single week, driving bitcoin above $126,000 in October 2025:
“Absent a renewed wave of company treasury adoption or a sustained return of ETF inflows, bitcoin is unlikely to obtain the identical magnitude of mechanical shopping for help that characterised a lot of 2025.”
Company shopping for has narrowed virtually totally to Technique, whereas some public mining corporations have change into internet sellers.
Summer time seasonality provides one other headwind
NYDIG’s seasonal evaluation confirmed that August and September are traditionally bitcoin’s weakest months, with each common and median returns adverse:
“For a market already in contraction, seasonality represents an extra headwind.”