Ethereum (ETH) is on target to do one thing it has by no means completed earlier than. It’s heading towards three consecutive purple quarters for the primary time in its historical past.
With about two weeks left earlier than the quarter closes, ETH nonetheless has time to interrupt the sample. A macro carry and rising staking have stored hopes of a reversal alive.
Why a Third Purple Quarter Would Be Historic For Ethereum
ETH has by no means closed three consecutive quarters within the purple, Coinglass knowledge reveals. The second-largest cryptocurrency fell 28.28% in This fall 2025 and 29.26% in Q1 2026. It’s down 18.4% this quarter.
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The worth stoop has pushed ETH close to multi-year lows and sentiment into deep worry.
“Ethereum is on observe for its 2nd worst first half of the yr after 2022,” an analyst famous.
The Bullish Case For Ethereum
With two weeks left within the quarter, Ethereum nonetheless has time to keep away from a sample it has by no means skilled earlier than. For now, momentum seems to be handing over its favor.
Broader threat markets have strengthened following experiences of a US-Iran peace settlement. The information lifted the full cryptocurrency market capitalization by 2% over the previous 24 hours. Ethereum has outperformed barely, gaining 2.6% over the identical interval to commerce above $1,700.
On the identical time, historic traits provide extra assist for the bullish case. ETH has recorded a constructive quarter instantly after each earlier occasion of back-to-back quarterly losses.
In 2022, for instance, Ethereum declined for 2 consecutive quarters earlier than rebounding 24% within the following quarter. Related, although extra modest, recoveries adopted consecutive purple quarters in 2019 and 2020.
Nevertheless, there’s a caveat. Any restoration would probably want to increase into Q3, which has traditionally been Ethereum’s weakest quarter, delivering a median return of simply 7.44%. Whereas historical past suggests ETH tends to bounce again after extended weak spot, seasonal traits point out the trail increased might not be simple.
Staking and Technical Indicators Lean Bullish
In addition to seasonal traits, technical indicators are additionally signaling a possible Ethereum backside. Analyst Ardi mentioned a number of metrics are aligning with earlier cycle lows, together with ETH’s latest contact of a blue decrease acceptance cloud and RSI traits.
Nevertheless, he cautioned that “worst isn’t over but,” relating to the value. Weekly RSI has but to spend a number of weeks under 30 as seen in prior cycles, whereas the ETH/BTC pair stays in a robust downtrend.
“ETH has extra draw back incoming so long as its pair bleeds. However final cycle, ETH bottomed 6 months earlier than BTC… Timing the underside is inconceivable. However we’re within the second half of the bear market yr,” the analyst remarked.
On the identical time, on-chain knowledge factors to resilient demand. Greater than 39.5 million ETH is now staked throughout greater than 887,000 validators, reflecting sturdy long-term conviction amongst holders.
This pattern doesn’t align with a strongly bearish outlook. As an alternative, the continued progress in staked ETH suggests buyers are selecting to lock up their holdings moderately than promote, serving to restrict potential on-chain promoting strain.
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