Might inflation hits 4.1% as Polymarket sees 79% odds of zero Fed cuts in 2026

Fed Cuts 2026 Polymarket: Zero-Price-Lower Odds Slip After 4.1% Inflation and Warsh Holds Charges Regular

After inflation rose 4.1% in Might and President Donald Trump’s advisers signaled extra endurance with new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s resolution to carry charges regular, Polymarket merchants leaned additional towards fewer Fed fee cuts in 2026. In Polymarket’s “What number of Fed fee cuts in 2026?” ladder, the main consequence remained zero cuts whilst its odds dipped to 79.25%.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket costs a 79.25% likelihood of 0 Fed fee cuts in 2026 within the “What number of Fed fee cuts in 2026?” market.
• Odds shifted decrease after contemporary inflation knowledge and messaging that the White Home is giving Chair Kevin Warsh political house to maintain charges regular.
• The market resolves on 2026-12-31, with $39,079,314 matched to date.

Some financial advisers to President Donald Trump have signaled extra endurance for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh after the Fed held rates of interest regular final week, whilst Trump has continued to name for fee cuts. A White Home official stated the administration shouldn’t be studying the info in another way, however that Warsh’s arrival has modified the political dynamic and given him an extended grace interval than his predecessor. The shift comes after inflation rose 4.1% within the yr ending in Might, whereas the Fed’s most popular measure has a 2% goal, and core inflation was 3.4%. The report stated elevated power costs linked to the battle contributed to the upper studying. Warsh stated the Fed was watching the info intently and the committee opted to maintain charges regular whereas ending a long-standing plan that biased coverage towards interest-rate cuts. Almost half of Fed policymakers, based on projections launched final week, anticipated rates of interest to go up this yr.

“How Many Fed Price Cuts in 2026?” Ladder: $39.1M Matched as 0 Cuts Leads at 79.25% (1 Lower 12.50%, 2 Cuts 3.45%)

Polymarket’s ladder is dominated by the “0 (0 bps)” rung, with Sure at 79.25% versus No at 20.75%, implying merchants nonetheless see no cuts as the bottom case regardless of a 2.85 percentage-point dip from 82.10%. Pricing falls off sharply past that: “1 (25 bps)” sits at 12.50% Sure / 87.50% No, whereas “2 (50 bps)” is 3.45% Sure / 96.55% No. Farther out, “3 (75 bps)” trades at 0.65% Sure / 99.35% No, underscoring how little chance the market assigns to a number of cuts. The contract has matched $39,079,314 in quantity, indicating deep liquidity concentrated close to the zero-cuts consequence.

Watch whether or not the “0 (0 bps)” rung holds close to the high-70s and whether or not any sustained circulate strikes chance towards “1 (25 bps),” because the market approaches its 2026-12-31 decision date.

Past Fed Bets: Different Excessive-Quantity Polymarket Macro & Geopolitical Contracts Merchants Are Watching

Past longer-dated rate-cut ladders, exercise can also be clustering in nearer-term macro timing performs, with 81.5% on “No change” in “Fed Choice in July?” because the contract attracts $21,111,083 in matched quantity. Merchants usually use these front-end outcomes as a cross-check on broader threat positioning, whereas rotating into different high-velocity geopolitical and macro contracts when central-bank pricing stabilizes.

Odds Development

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: What number of Fed fee cuts in 2026?
• Contract kind: Value strike ladder: every rung has separate Sure/No; Sure means the spot worth is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Decision window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
• Standing: Lively (open for buying and selling)
• Quantity: ~$39,079,314

High strike rungs

+9 extra strikes not proven

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Sources

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