Bitcoin (BTC) is heading for its worst month-to-month loss since mid-2022, with BTC down roughly 18.5% in June as worth struggles to carry the psychological $60,000 assist degree.
BTC/USD month-to-month chart. Supply: TradingView
Will Bitcoin’s draw back momentum prolong in July, or is BTC getting ready for a restoration?
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin’s liquidity map reveals a serious short-liquidation “magnet zone” close to $67,600.
- BTC has traditionally gained 7.6% on common in July, whereas midterm-year seasonality factors to an excellent stronger 10.3% common return.
Bitcoin could hit $75,000 in July
July could turn into a “bullish month for Bitcoin,” in line with analyst Fleh, who predicted BTC worth to rally towards $75,000 subsequent month.
The bullish thesis is predicated on Bitcoin’s Binance BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap, which reveals a big focus of quick liquidation ranges sitting above the present worth.
On the month-to-month chart, the strongest seen liquidity cluster sits close to $67,645, the place the chart reveals round $247.39 million in liquidation leverage and roughly $2.26 billion in cumulative quick liquidation leverage.
Binance BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap (1 month). Supply: CoinGlass
For learners, such clusters are sometimes referred to as “magnet zones.” When many leveraged positions are concentrated across the similar worth space, the market can transfer towards that zone as a result of liquidations create compelled shopping for or promoting stress.
On this case, important liquidity sits above Bitcoin’s present worth close to $60,000.
If BTC rebounds and pushes towards $67,600, quick sellers could also be compelled to shut their positions. Since closing shorts requires shopping for Bitcoin again, that may add recent upside stress and gasoline a brief squeeze.
“I believe $BTC bottoms right here at 60k for now, focusing on 75k to the upside earlier than any likelihood of decrease,” Fleh stated in a Saturday put up.
BTC rises 7.6% on common in July
Bitcoin’s historic month-to-month returns additionally assist Fleh’s bullish July outlook.
BTC has returned a 7.6% achieve on common in July, making it one among its stronger months after a usually weaker June, which reveals a median return of -1.40%, in line with CoinGlass information highlighted by analyst CGT_Trader.
Bitcoin month-to-month returns monitoring the July efficiency in since 2013. Supply: CoinGlass/CGT_Trader
The development has appeared even throughout bear market years.
As an example, Bitcoin rose 20.96% in July 2018 and 16.8% in July 2022. Extra lately, BTC gained 2.95% in July 2024 and eight.13% in July 2025, strengthening the case for one more inexperienced month forward.
A separate midterm-year seasonality chart additionally reveals that- Bitcoin has averaged a ten.3% achieve throughout the month, its strongest month-to-month return in such years.
Bitcoin efficiency by month throughout US mid-term election years. Supply: Extra Crypto On-line
That compares with a median 17% loss in June, pointing to the opportunity of a post-sell-off mean-reversion bounce.
Primarily based on Bitcoin’s present worth close to $60,000, its historic July common return of seven.6% tasks a transfer towards roughly $64,500, whereas the stronger midterm-year common of 10.3% factors to about $66,100.
A repeat of Bitcoin’s bear-market July rebounds from 2022 and 2018 would put BTC between $70,000 and $72,500, whereas a 2020-style July rally would convey Fleh’s $75,000 goal inside attain.
BTC’s dip under the 200-week SMA could prolong slide
Bitcoin’s ongoing drop under its 200-week easy transferring common (200-day SMA, the blue line) close to $62,445 raises the chance of additional draw back in July.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Supply: TradingView
An identical lack of long-term moving-average assist preceded deeper weak spot throughout the 2022 bear market, when BTC continued decrease earlier than forming a backside.
Associated: Bitcoin faces recent capitulation danger as 50K BTC moved at a loss
Bitcoin’s bear flag breakdown raises the percentages of a worth decline towards $55,000 in July except BTC rapidly reclaims the 200-day SMA.
BTC/USD every day chart. Supply: TradingView