Roughly 70% of all closed markets on Polymarket recorded below $10,000 in reported buying and selling quantity between 2021 and the top of Could 2026, a CNBC evaluation discovered.
The findings land as prediction markets put up surging quantity, pushed by the 2026 FIFA World Cup. That hole exhibits how a small group of marquee contracts, fairly than the broader platform, captures many of the cash.
Most Polymarket Closed Markets Traded Below $10,000
CNBC pulled closed-market information from Polymarket’s Gamma API, which counts notional quantity on either side of every commerce. The distribution got here out closely skewed.
Fewer than 10% of closed markets drew between $100,000 and $1 million in reported quantity. Greater than 45,000 markets, shut to five% of the overall, confirmed no reported quantity in any respect.
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Bots dominate the skinny finish. Joshua Della Vedova, a enterprise professor on the College of San Diego, discovered that greater than 80% of the amount in sub-$10,000 markets got here from bots.
He outlined bots as wallets that make greater than 50 trades a day or greater than 1,000 in whole. By his estimate, they earned roughly $1.2 million in markets below $10,000, however about $50.5 million within the $1 million to $10 million vary.
That tier made up 38% of whole bot revenue. Markets above $10 million added an additional $35.1 million.
“They’re earning money throughout all markets,” Della Vedova stated. “(Bots) generate income per transaction, and due to this fact they like to commerce in these bigger markets, however they’ll commerce throughout the entire spectrum.”
The report added that Kalshi additionally recorded a big variety of shallow markets, primarily based on an evaluation of the on-chain information from Dune. Nonetheless, not like Polymarket’s Gamma API, Kalshi’s notional quantity figures on Dune account for just one facet of every commerce.
World Cup Bets Gas Prediction Market Progress
The skinny-market image contrasts with headline progress. Weekly World Cup quantity throughout main venues climbed from $65 million within the week of June 1 to $5.4 billion by June 29, in line with CryptoRank information.
Quantity peaked at $5.6 billion within the week of June 22. Kalshi led the climb, displaying how main sports activities occasions can shortly drive demand for prediction buying and selling.
That progress sits alongside the skinny tail. The cash concentrates in a small set of high-profile contracts, whereas tens of 1000’s of markets see nearly no exercise.
BeInCrypto has reached out to each Polymarket and Kalshi for remark.
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