NYDIG’s newest analysis report paints a tough image for bitcoin in 2026, with the asset falling 13.4% in Q2 after a 22.6% drop in Q1, bringing its year-to-date return to -32.9%.
What stands out is that this weak point got here whereas broader danger markets rallied arduous.
A bitcoin-specific drawdown
Expertise equities gained 43.5% and the Nasdaq 100 rose 27.7% in the identical quarter bitcoin fell, reinforcing that the decline was bitcoin-specific relatively than a broad risk-off occasion.
Analyst Greg Cipolaro pointed to provide considerations round digital asset treasury firms (DATs) and tighter liquidity expectations below new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh as the primary culprits.
Bitcoin is now down 54.3% from its $126,000 all-time excessive set on October 6, 2025, reaching $57,717 on July 1. The drawdown has prolonged to 268 days.
The cycle framework returns
The report leaned closely on the four-year cycle narrative, noting the 2 most up-to-date main drawdowns lasted 363 and 376 days with trough depths of -84.3% and -77.6%:
“A repeat of that length profile with a narrower -70% drawdown… would indicate a possible cycle low close to $38K–$39K round early October.”
On-chain metrics reinforce an incomplete reset:
“A number of cyclical indicators (MVRV, PSIP, aSOPR, LTH SOPR) nonetheless above the trough ranges which have traditionally marked sturdy bitcoin bottoms.”
Technique flips from purchaser to vendor
The largest bitcoin-specific shift was Technique (MSTR) unveiling its Digital Credit score Capital Framework, authorizing roughly $1.25B of BTC gross sales whereas elevating the STRC dividend to 12%:
“That modified the narrative from one-way accumulation to energetic balance-sheet administration.”
On flows, U.S. spot ETFs posted $4.9B of web outflows, although the brand new Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Belief bucked the development with $364.8M of inflows:
“That launch demonstrates that distribution nonetheless issues.”
Derivatives are additionally flashing warnings, with constructive funding and rising open curiosity close to cycle lows:
“Lengthy-skewed leverage is being rebuilt… earlier than spot demand has confirmed a restoration.”