Polymarket: US-Iran invasion Sure jumps to 27.5% on $44M quantity

Polymarket “U.S. Invade Iran Earlier than 2027?” Jumps to 27.5% Sure on Market-Led Repricing (No Clear Catalyst in Dataset)

On Polymarket, the “Will the U.S. invade Iran earlier than 2027?” contract is priced at 27.5% Sure (72.5% No) on $44.27M matched quantity, up 16.0 proportion factors from 11.5%. The one linked headline right here is unrelated sports activities protection, so the transfer reads as market-led repricing moderately than a single, clearly recognized information catalyst within the offered dataset.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket presently implies 27.5% Sure and 72.5% No on a U.S. invasion of Iran earlier than 2027, with No the main end result.
• Regardless of an unrelated information hyperlink on this dataset, the contract repriced sharply (+16.0pp vs the prior snapshot), signaling a cloth shift in dealer danger evaluation and not using a documented catalyst right here.
• This binary market resolves by 2026-12-31; latest historical past flags average volatility with reversal_detected true and a 24h and 7d change of -2.0pp.

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Odds & Liquidity Verify: 27.5% Sure / 72.5% No With $44.27M Matched Quantity, +16.0pp Reprice and Reversal Flag

This can be a binary Sure/No contract: shopping for Sure is a guess that an invasion happens earlier than the 2026-12-31 decision date; the displayed 27.5% is the market’s implied likelihood for that end result, with No priced at 72.5%. The headline transfer is the soar from 11.5% to 27.5% Sure (+16.0pp) alongside $44.27M in matched quantity, which is per significant disagreement being traded via moderately than a skinny, low-volume print. On the identical time, the historical_summary describes the tape as bearish with average momentum and average volatility, and it flags reversal_detected true, matching a market that has not too long ago whipsawed moderately than cleanly trending. The 24h and 7d modifications are each -2.0pp, suggesting the newest leg has cooled even after the bigger step-up, and the avg_last_5 of 17.9% signifies the present 27.5% sits above its latest native common.

If you’re buying and selling this market, the important thing operational element is the settlement window: any place is keyed as to if the invasion situation is met by 2026-12-31. From a pricing lens, watch whether or not Sure holds above the latest common (17.9%) or mean-reverts, given the reversal flag and solely -2.0pp internet motion over each 24h and 7d within the abstract.

Cross-Contract Watchlist: How Merchants Hedge This Geopolitics Danger through Macro, Election, and Crypto Volatility Markets on

Zooming out from the headline contract, Polymarket merchants typically triangulate danger by watching adjoining markets that may transfer on the identical data circulation and supply cleaner hedges. On the Iran board, that features 78.05% on “Iran chief finish of 2026?” (Mojtaba Khamenei) with $30,661,897 matched, 50.5% on “US x Iran Efficient Ceasefire by…? (2 week pause)” (August 31) on $732,955, and a lopsided 98.75% on “Strait of Hormuz site visitors returns to regular by July 31?” (No) with $17,668,093 traded. One other read-through merchants monitor is “Will the Iranian regime fall earlier than 2027?” at 90.5% (No) on $22,339,261, which might act as a sentiment verify when the broader geopolitical tape will get unstable.

Odds Pattern

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Will the U.S. invade Iran earlier than 2027?
• Decision window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
• Standing: Energetic (open for buying and selling)
• Main implied prob.: 27.5%
• Quantity: ~$44,274,899
• Prime outcomes: Sure: Sure 27.5% / No 72.5%; No: Sure 27.5% / No 72.5%

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