Polymarket odds: 98% say Hormuz visitors gained't normalize by July 31

Polymarket Reprices on U.S.–Iran Strike Danger, Driving “Hormuz Regular by July 31” Towards a Close to-Whole No

Polymarket is pricing a near-certain “No” on whether or not Strait of Hormuz visitors returns to regular by July 31, with No at 98.45% (Sure 1.55%) on $18.55M matched quantity. The newest repricing follows renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and reported disruption dangers in and across the strait, and the contract’s transfer exhibits how rapidly merchants have converged on a single final result.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket’s main name is No at 98.45% (Sure 1.55%) for “Strait of Hormuz visitors returns to regular by July 31?”
• Merchants leaned more durable into disruption threat after experiences of escalating strikes and claims of concentrating on tankers, pushing the market towards an excessive No consensus.
• The market resolves on 2026-07-31 (UTC), and pricing has swung sharply over the previous week (historical_summary: change_7d 35.5pp, excessive volatility, reversal detected).

A report describes a contemporary spherical of U.S. airstrikes in opposition to Iran after one other U.S. service member’s dying, adopted by Iranian retaliation concentrating on Bahrain. It additionally says delivery visitors within the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled, a ship caught hearth close to Oman, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed it was concentrating on tankers within the strait.

Odds, Quantity, and Volatility: No 98.45% vs Sure 1.55% on $18.55M Matched because the Market Swings 35.5pp in 7 Days

It is a binary Polymarket contract: shopping for Sure solely pays if the market’s decision standards choose that Strait of Hormuz visitors has returned to “regular” by 2026-07-31, whereas No pays in any other case; at 1.55% Sure, merchants are treating a “regular by deadline” final result as an extended shot. The present break up (Sure 1.55% / No 98.45%) additionally displays unusually tight settlement for an event-driven market, even because the contract has seen giant swings earlier (historical_summary exhibits excessive volatility and reversal_detected true). The tape implies a pointy derisking into the adverse final result: the snapshot exhibits Sure at 42.0 beforehand whereas the headline state now sits at 1.55% Sure, alongside $18.55M in matched quantity, suggesting conviction quite than a 50/50 standoff. Versus slower narrative-driven forecasts, the market is constantly translating every incremental disruption headline right into a single chance that should clear a tough calendar cutoff on July 31.

Watch whether or not the market continues to compress close to 100% No or reopens significant two-way pricing; any sustained transfer up in Sure from 1.55% would sign merchants assigning a materially greater probability of normalization earlier than the July 31 decision date.

What Merchants Watch Subsequent on Polymarket: Spillover Contracts on Oil, Transport Disruption, and Macro Danger From Center East

Past the primary Strait of Hormuz timing commerce, Polymarket contributors are additionally triangulating the broader threat backdrop via adjoining contracts that may transfer in tandem with delivery and vitality headlines. Within the battle calendar lane, 99.7% is on “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues via…?” (July 18) on $692,578 quantity, whereas longer-horizon regime and escalation questions are concentrated in “Iran chief finish of 2026?” at 73.45% (Mojtaba Khamenei) with $32,663,632 and “Will the U.S. invade Iran earlier than 2027?” at 69.5% (No) with $44,980,250. Merchants searching for a cleaner extension learn can even evaluate the later-dated “Strait of Hormuz visitors returns to regular by August 31?” at 86.5% (No) on $1,246,012, alongside the extra two-sided “Iran full airspace closure by…?” at 50.5% (August 31) with $4,681,646.

Odds Development

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Strait of Hormuz visitors returns to regular by July 31?
• Decision window: Jul 31, 2026 (UTC)
• Standing: Lively (open for buying and selling)
• Main implied prob.: 1.6%
• Quantity: ~$18,548,291
• High outcomes: Sure: Sure 1.6% / No 98.5%; No: Sure 1.6% / No 98.5%

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